Bitcoin News Today: Seasonality and Sentiment Clash as Bitcoin Targets $150K

Bitcoin is poised for a potential parabolic move as September progresses, with analysts offering a range of price forecasts. Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates a final surge for Bitcoin, potentially reaching between $125,000 and $150,000, though he warns the window is narrowing. The asset has shown strength, remaining above $107,000—a critical threshold for maintaining bullish sentiment. Should it fall below that level, a 50% correction to around $60,000 could be in the cards [1]. Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn and others, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, project a more aggressive target of $150,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year [1].

Ethereum, after reclaiming its 2021 high of $4,870, is building momentum for a potential breakout in the coming months. Polymath co-founder Trevor Koverko notes that Ethereum is in a consolidation phase and anticipates a surge if ETF inflows and L2 activity continue to grow [1]. US-based spot Ether ETFs have already seen $3.87 billion in net inflows in August, with total inflows reaching $13.53 billion since their launch in July 2024 [1]. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, expected in September, is seen as a major catalyst for further Ethereum gains, with the market assigning an 86.4% probability to the first cut of the year [1].

Solana remains a focal point for traders and analysts, despite diverging views on its potential. While some argue that a $1,000 price target is unrealistic due to ongoing token inflation, others remain bullish, especially with eight US-based Solana ETFs awaiting SEC approval. The current price of $197 represents a 20% gain over the past month but is still 49% below its January all-time high of $293 [1]. Derivatives market data from onchain options protocol Derive founder Nick Forster shows mixed signals, with the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by October standing at just 7%, down from 21% the previous week [1].

Prediction markets also reflect the market's uncertainty. Polymarket data indicates a 68% chance that Bitcoin will dip below $100,000 before 2026, a 17% increase from 30 days ago [1]. In contrast, Ethereum has a 30% probability of reaching $6,000 by the end of October, with the odds rising to 44% for a year-end target [1]. Analysts attribute the potential for a late-year surge to increased institutional adoption of Ethereum and anticipated rate cuts.

September seasonality remains a point of caution. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has typically declined during the third week of the month, with an average drop of 3.5% since 2013 [2]. Timothy Peterson, a network economist, highlights that between September 16 and 23, Bitcoin has historically fallen 100% of the time, with a typical drop of 5% [2]. This seasonal pattern could pose a challenge for crypto bulls seeking to push Bitcoin to new highs.

As the market navigates these conflicting signals, sentiment remains a key factor. Santiment data reveals that retail traders are showing strong bullish sentiment for Solana, with five bullish comments for every bearish one. The broader crypto market, however, remains volatile, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fluctuating between fear and neutral levels [1]. Despite these fluctuations, the altcoin season seems to be waning, with the Altcoin Season Index dropping back to "Bitcoin Season" [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin to see 'one more big thrust' to $150K, ETH pressure ... (https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-big-move-ether-price-surge-dogecoin-xrp-solana-trade-secrets/)

[2] Bitcoin bulls charge at $112K as gold hits fresh all-time highs (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bulls-charge-at-112k-gold-hits-fresh-all-time-highs)