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Retail investors are increasingly offloading Bitcoin to exchanges like Binance, while large holders—commonly referred to as whales—are making significant moves in favor of Ethereum [1]. This trend highlights a growing divergence in market behavior, with retail traders locking in profits amid Bitcoin’s recent price rally, while institutional and large-scale investors shift their capital toward Ethereum [1]. By the end of July, the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows from short-term holders to Binance had surged to over 36,000 BTC, signaling an intent to sell, especially at elevated price levels [1].
In contrast, Ethereum whale activity has intensified, with a major transfer of 640,646 ETH—valued at over $250 million—being moved to a long-term storage address [5]. Ethereum whales have collectively transferred more than $2.43 billion worth of ETH in recent weeks, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment [2]. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs have attracted over 1.6 million ETH in inflows since mid-June, outpacing the combined inflows of the previous 11 months [5]. This accumulation pattern aligns with broader institutional interest in the asset, as reflected in rising open interest and a growing dominance of Ethereum in speculative trading.
The volatility gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum is also widening. Ethereum’s 30-day volatility is now 30% higher than Bitcoin’s, up from 24% a month ago [1]. This divergence reflects renewed investor interest in Ethereum, fueled by developments such as the emergence of treasury-backed ether firms and the 10th anniversary of the network. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin options market shows signs of bearish positioning, with the BTC 30-day skew flipping from +3% to -1.5%—indicating stronger demand for downside insurance [1].
Despite a recent large off-market sale of 80,000 BTC—worth over $9 billion—by an OG whale linked to Satoshi-era wallets, Bitcoin has shown resilience, maintaining stability near $118,000 [4]. Technical indicators suggest the price is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart, hovering just below the 50-day moving average at $118,204 [4]. A breakout above the $120,283 resistance level could push the price toward $125,000, but open interest in BTC perpetual futures has exceeded 300,000 BTC, a level last seen in November 2024 [4].
The divergence in investor behavior—retail traders shifting away from Bitcoin while whales and institutional players continue to accumulate—raises questions about the immediate outlook for the asset [3]. However, it also underscores the continued institutional conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value. For Ethereum, the influx of speculative and institutional capital suggests it is increasingly being viewed as a preferred vehicle for capital deployment.
As key macroeconomic events, including the Federal Open Market Committee decision and potential U.S. regulatory updates, approach, both Bitcoin and Ethereum could see increased volatility [4]. Investors are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as open interest and funding rate dynamics, for early signs of directional bias.
The crypto market is at a pivotal moment. With retail investors selling off Bitcoin and whales piling into Ethereum, a realignment of market power appears to be in motion [1]. Whether this trend represents a temporary correction or a more permanent shift remains to be seen, but current data indicates that Ethereum is gaining traction as the preferred asset for sophisticated market players.
Sources:
[1] AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-retail-investors-boost-bitcoin-transfers-binance-ethereum-whales-pull-900m-eth-cold-storage-2508/
[2] Binance, https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/27699455052225
[3]
, https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1meb1i4/bitcoin_whales_bought_1_of_circulating_btc_supply/[4] Cryptonews, https://www.cryptonews.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-og-whale-dumps-80000-btc-and-bitcoin-still-looks-ready-to-blast-higher/
[5] Blockchain News, https://blockchain.news/flashnews/ethereum-whales-accumulate-2-43b-in-eth-640-646-eth-moved-since-july-9-major-galaxy-digital-otc-transfer

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