Bitcoin News Today: Retail Fear and History Hint at Bitcoin's Next Bull Run

Bitcoin’s price has corrected below $113,000, marking a significant shift in market sentiment as retail traders become increasingly bearish. This decline, the first in over two weeks, has triggered a wave of liquidations, with over $113 million in leveraged long positions wiped out as of Friday. The price drop follows a brief all-time high of $124,176, raising concerns among traders about the sustainability of the current bull market amid growing macroeconomic uncertainties [1].

Retail sentiment has turned sharply bearish, with blockchain analytics firm Santiment noting a "complete 180" in trader behavior after Bitcoin failed to rally above $113,000. The firm reported that the last 24 hours marked the most bearish social sentiment since mid-June, driven largely by fear and uncertainty. However, Santiment also highlighted that such extreme fear often precedes a rebound, suggesting that current conditions could create opportunities for dip buyers [3].

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has dropped to a reading of 44, its lowest since late June, indicating a strong shift toward fear in the market. This aligns with broader market dynamics where investors are increasingly prioritizing downside protection, particularly in Bitcoin derivatives. The 30-day options delta skew metric at Deribit has turned bearish, reaching 12%—a level last seen in early April when Bitcoin dropped below $74,500. Historically, such levels of fear have been followed by significant rebounds, as seen in April when Bitcoin surged by 40% within a month [1].

Macro factors have also contributed to the recent selloff. U.S. trade policies, particularly the 50% import tariffs on aluminum and steel products, have raised concerns over inflation and supply chain disruptions. These developments have fueled risk-averse behavior across asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. Additionally, corporate AI initiatives have underperformed expectations, with a report from MIT NANDA indicating that 95% of companies have not achieved rapid revenue growth from AI deployments, further exacerbating investor caution [1].

Despite the short-term volatility, some analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Bernstein analysts have forecasted that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within six to 12 months, citing a “long, exhausting bull run” into 2027. This projection is supported by a regulatory environment that appears to be evolving in favor of crypto assets, including recent executive actions and legislative developments like the GENIUS Act, which provides a federal framework for stablecoins [2].

Historically, bull markets for Bitcoin have included sharp corrections that eventually led to new highs. In both 2017 and 2021, BTC experienced over 20% pullbacks before resuming upward trends. If the current cycle follows a similar pattern, the market may see a pullback to as low as $90,000 before a new rally emerges. This pattern reinforces the idea that corrections are a natural and often necessary part of a healthy bull cycle [3].

While the immediate outlook remains uncertain, the broader structural factors—such as growing institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and corporate accumulation—continue to underpin a long-term bullish trend. The recent outflows from crypto ETFs contrast with the broader trend of net inflows, particularly for ether funds, which saw record inflows for the 14th consecutive week. These metrics suggest that while retail sentiment is bearish, institutional and corporate demand remains robust [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin sinks to $115000 after hitting its newest record, as ... (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/crypto-market-today.html)

[2] Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within 6 months during 'long ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-could-reach-200000-within-6-months-during-long-exhausting-crypto-bull-market-173358527.html)

[3] Bitcoin Corrects Below $113K As Retail Traders Panic Sell (https://cointelegraph.com/news/retail-flips-ultra-bearish-bitcoin-dips-113k-santiment)