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Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has recommended that investors allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold or Bitcoin as a hedge against U.S. debt risks and potential currency devaluation [1]. This marks a notable departure from his earlier stance, which suggested a 1%-2% Bitcoin allocation in early 2022 [2]. The recommendation comes amid escalating concerns over the U.S. national debt, which has surged to $36.7 trillion, with an estimated $12 trillion in additional Treasury issuance needed over the next year to service obligations [3]. A recent Treasury report further underscored the urgency, projecting $1 trillion in new borrowing for Q3 2025—$453 billion higher than previously forecast—and $590 billion in Q4, signaling growing fiscal strain [4].
Dalio emphasized that unsustainable fiscal policies threaten the stability of fiat currencies, prompting the need for diversification into “store-of-value assets” to optimize the return-to-risk ratio [5]. While he personally holds “some Bitcoin, but not much,” he favors gold for its historical liquidity and reliability. Investors retain discretion to split the 15% allocation between gold and Bitcoin based on individual risk tolerance [6]. Dalio also highlighted similar “debt doom loop” challenges in other Western economies, including the U.K., further undermining confidence in traditional currency systems [7].
The cryptocurrency and gold markets have shown muted yet positive reactions to the guidance. Bitcoin recently traded near $118,100, close to its July 14 all-time high of $123,230, while gold has hit multiple recent peaks [9]. However, institutional allocations have not yet shifted significantly in response. Dalio remains cautious about Bitcoin’s role as a reserve currency, citing its transparency as a barrier to adoption by central banks, which prioritize privacy in monetary systems. He also noted that any code vulnerabilities in Bitcoin could jeopardize its viability as an alternative money [8].
The U.S. Treasury’s revised borrowing plans amplify concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. As cash reserves face strain, expanding debt issuance raises questions about the economy’s resilience to systemic risks. Dalio’s strategy aligns with broader investor sentiment, reflecting a growing preference for assets that hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. His comments underscore a shift in macroeconomic thinking, where traditional safe-havens and cryptocurrencies are increasingly seen as counterbalances to volatile fiscal landscapes [10].
Sources:
[1] Cointelegraph, https://cointelegraph.com/news/ray-dalio-suggests-15-percent-bitcoin-allocation
[2] Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-says-15-bitcoin-003103801.html
[3] AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-ray-dalio-recommends-15-bitcoin-gold-allocation-hedge-debt-currency-devaluation-risks-2507/
[4] AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-ray-dalio-triples-bitcoin-gold-portfolio-allocation-15-debt-hits-36-7-trillion-2507/
[5] Cointelegraph, https://cointelegraph.com/news/ray-dalio-suggests-15-percent-bitcoin-allocation
[6] AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-ray-dalio-recommends-15-bitcoin-gold-allocation-hedge-debt-currency-devaluation-risks-2507/
[7] AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-ray-dalio-triples-bitcoin-gold-portfolio-allocation-15-debt-hits-36-7-trillion-2507/
[8] Cointelegraph, https://cointelegraph.com/news/ray-dalio-suggests-15-percent-bitcoin-allocation
[9] TradingView data cited in Cointelegraph, https://cointelegraph.com/news/ray-dalio-suggests-15-percent-bitcoin-allocation
[10] AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-ray-dalio-triples-bitcoin-gold-portfolio-allocation-15-debt-hits-36-7-trillion-2507/

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