Bitcoin News Today: Rate Cut on Horizon, Yet Markets Shun Risk as Santa Rally Stalls

The "Santa Rally"-traditionally a seasonal surge in equities during December-has shown signs of stalling in 2025, despite mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. With the Fed now seen as nearly certain to reduce borrowing costs in December, market participants are grappling with mixed signals, as investors weigh the potential for policy easing against persistent macroeconomic uncertainties and sector-specific headwinds. Bank of America analysts recently revised their projections, stating that traders now anticipate a December cut with 80% probability, up from around 30% in late November according to analysts, while also forecasting only two additional 25-basis-point reductions in 2026 according to forecasts.

The expected rate cut has failed to spark a broad-based rebound in equities. The ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ), a leveraged ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100, has seen volatile performance in recent weeks, with prices fluctuating between $52.33 and $56.36 in early November, reflecting cautious positioning among traders according to market data. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which had previously surged toward $93,000, faces critical resistance at $93k–$96k and $100k–$108k, areas where profit-taking by recent buyers could hinder a fresh all-time high according to market analysis. Analysts note that breaking through these levels is essential for the cryptocurrency to regain bullish momentum.

The Fed's pivot toward easing has also failed to ignite a broader risk-on trade. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a December cut rising sharply in recent days, yet markets remain hesitant to commit capital to growth assets. This hesitancy is evident in the performance of tech stocks and crypto projects alike. Bitcoin Munari, a Solana-based crypto initiative, continues its structured presale with a fixed-supply model, offering investors a transparent distribution framework amid market volatility according to project updates. The project's ten-round presale, priced between $0.10 and $3.00, aims to provide clarity in a sector often plagued by unpredictable price swings.

The juxtaposition of a near-certain Fed rate cut and a subdued Santa Rally underscores the challenges facing asset markets. While lower borrowing costs typically boost equities and risk assets, investors are increasingly prioritizing certainty over speculation. Bitcoin Munari's fixed-supply approach, for instance, has attracted attention as a counterpoint to the volatility seen in other crypto projects and equities according to market analysis. Similarly, traditional markets are showing uneven responses: the S&P 500 Health Care Index posted its best month since 2022, driven by a shift in investor preferences toward defensive sectors according to Bloomberg reporting.

Looking ahead, the Fed's December decision may set the tone for year-end market behavior. However, with policymakers signaling a cautious path for further cuts and economic data remaining mixed, the Santa Rally's potential remains constrained. As BofA analysts note, the expected December cut is likely to be "hawkish," leaving the door open for future tightening if inflationary pressures resurface according to market analysis. For investors, the focus may shift to assets with clear structural advantages, such as Bitcoin Munari's fixed-supply model or sectors like health care, which offer stability amid macroeconomic uncertainty according to Bloomberg reporting.