Bitcoin News Today: Quantum Time Bomb: Why Bitcoin’s Future Hinges on 2028

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has warned that quantum computing could pose a significant threat to Bitcoin by 2028, urging the adoption of quantum-resistant systems to protect digital assets. This assessment comes as quantum computing advances rapidly, with experts forecasting that quantum machines capable of breaking widely used encryption methods could emerge within the next few years.

Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, relies on cryptographic algorithms such as RSA and ECDSA to secure transactions. However, quantum algorithms like Shor’s and Grover’s can compromise these encryption methods. Shor’s algorithm can efficiently factor large integers and solve discrete logarithms, which underpin most public-key cryptography, while Grover’s algorithm reduces the effective strength of symmetric encryption by half. These capabilities pose a direct threat to the long-term security of blockchain systems, which require cryptographic guarantees to remain valid for decades.

To address these risks, the SEC's task force emphasized the need for a transition to post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithms. These include lattice-based, hash-based, and code-based cryptographic schemes, which are designed to be secure against quantum attacks. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already begun standardizing PQC algorithms, with Kyber and Dilithium leading the way for key encapsulation and digital signatures, respectively. The adoption of these standards is critical for ensuring the continued integrity of blockchain networks and other financial systems.

Quantum blockchain technologies are also being explored as a more comprehensive solution. These systems integrate quantum cryptographic methods such as quantum key distribution (QKD) and quantum random number generation (QRNG) to enhance security. QKD leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to enable theoretically unbreakable key exchange, while QRNG ensures the generation of truly unpredictable random numbers, essential for secure consensus mechanisms. By adopting these quantum-enhanced approaches, blockchain infrastructures can better resist both classical and quantum-based threats.

Despite the promise of quantum blockchain, significant challenges remain. Current quantum hardware is limited by factors such as qubit count, error rates, and decoherence, which hinder practical deployment. Additionally, the integration of quantum-native consensus mechanisms and hybrid classical-quantum systems requires substantial technical and financial investment. These barriers mean that widespread adoption of quantum-resistant systems may take several years to materialize.

The SEC’s warning highlights the urgency of preparing for the quantum era, particularly in the financial sector. As quantum computing continues to evolve, the risk of quantum attacks on cryptographic systems becomes increasingly real. Proactive measures, including the early adoption of PQC standards and the development of quantum-secure architectures, are essential to mitigate these risks. Financial institutions and technology providers must collaborate to ensure that their systems remain resilient against quantum threats.

Moving forward, the transition to quantum-resistant systems will involve not only technical challenges but also regulatory and standardization efforts. Developing interoperable protocols and governance frameworks will be crucial for maintaining a secure and harmonized financial ecosystem. As quantum computing approaches practical scalability, the need for robust quantum-resistant solutions has never been more pressing.

Source:

[1] Algorand Foundation (n.d.), ‘Algorand’s post-quantum readiness via falcon signatures’, https://algorand.co/technology/post-quantum.

[2] Allende et al. (2021), ‘Quantum-resistance in blockchain networks’, https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.06640.

[3] Amin et al. (2025), ‘Blockchain with proof of quantum work’, https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14462.

[4] Auer et al. (2024), ‘Bis papers no 149: Quantum computing and the financial system: opportunities and risks’, https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap149.pdf.

[5] Barletta (2023), ‘An introduction to quantum mechanics … for those who dwell in the macroscopic world’, https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.4234.

[6] Bernstein et al. (2009), ‘Attacking and defending the rsa key exchange’, in ‘Fast Software Encryption’, Vol. 5625 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer.

[7] Bova et al. (2023), ‘Quantum economic advantage’, Management Science 69(2), 1116–1126, http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4578.