Bitcoin News Today: Quantum Risks and Institutional Exodus Weigh on Bitcoin's 2025 Outlook

Bitcoin price predictions remain anchored below $100,000 until 2025, driven by a confluence of bearish factors including the onchain reality of the halving cycle, quantum computing threats to encryption, and shifting institutional strategies. Despite Bitcoin's recent rebound to $86,204 from a 2025 low of $84,643, the asset faces structural headwinds as market participants recalibrate expectations amid a broader liquidity reset. The bearish narrative is reinforced by institutional divestment from indirect crypto exposure, regulatory uncertainties, and the emergence of privacy-focused alternatives like Zcash (ZEC), which has surged 930% year-to-date.

VanEck CEO James Seyffert has highlighted concerns over Bitcoin's vulnerability to quantum computing, warning that elliptic curve cryptography-the foundation of Bitcoin's security-could be obsolete within a decade. His remarks align with Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin, who recently stated that "elliptic curves are going to die," and quantum computing expert Scott Aaronson, who notes the "live possibility" of a quantum breakthrough by 2028. These risks have prompted some Bitcoin maximalists to question the long-term viability of public blockchains reliant on traditional cryptographic methods.

Institutional investors are also repositioning portfolios, with $5.4 billion in MicroStrategy (MSTR) exposure liquidated in Q3 2025 alone. MicroStrategy's transformation into a corporate Bitcoin proxy-amassing 649,870 BTC-has drawn scrutiny as firms seek more direct crypto exposure through regulated ETFs and custody solutions. The company's stock, which traded at a 14.8% discount to its net Bitcoin asset value, now faces pressure from MSCI's potential index exclusion for companies holding over 50% of assets in crypto. This shift reflects a broader maturation of institutional crypto strategies, prioritizing efficiency over indirect equity wrappers.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's technical outlook remains fragile. ETF outflows and elevated daily liquidations-peaking at $500 million-have eroded momentum, with support levels repeatedly tested around $80,900–$83,000. Derivatives positioning reveals cautious optimism, such as a $1.76 billion call condor bet targeting a $100,000–$112,000 rebound by year-end, but widespread adoption of such strategies remains limited. The asset's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 (0.72) underscores its role as a high-beta risk asset rather than a macro hedge.

Emerging projects like Bitcoin Munari are capitalizing on market uncertainty, launching a presale at $0.10 ahead of its 2026 Solana deployment. By combining Bitcoin's supply constraints with EVM-compatible smart contracts and privacy features, BTCM aims to address institutional demands for flexibility while preserving scarcity. This innovation highlights the competitive pressures reshaping the crypto landscape, even as Bitcoin consolidates below $90,000.

Analysts suggest a potential recovery path hinges on sustained spot demand above $84,000 and stabilization of ETF flows. However, with macroeconomic headwinds-including a hawkish Fed stance and elevated Treasury yields-persisting, Bitcoin's ascent to $100,000 remains contingent on a fundamental shift in risk appetite and regulatory clarity. Until then, the bearish thesis-anchored by quantum risks, institutional reallocation, and technical fragility-dominates the near-term outlook.