Bitcoin News Today: Puell Multiple's Descent: Rebound Signal or Deeper Downturn?

The Bitcoin Puell Multiple, a key on-chain metric tracking miner revenue relative to its 365-day average, has fallen to 0.67, signaling growing pressure on the network but remaining above the 0.50 threshold historically linked to cycle bottoms. Analysts and market observers are closely monitoring the indicator, which has previously flagged major price troughs since 2015. While the current reading suggests undervaluation compared to annual averages, it has not yet reached the level associated with prior market bottoms, leaving investors in a cautious wait-and-see mode.

Developed by Glassnode, the Puell Multiple calculates daily Bitcoin issuance to miners against their historical revenue, offering insights into market dynamics. A reading below 1 indicates miners are earning less than their annual average, often linked to capitulation phases. The metric's drop to 0.67 follows Bitcoin's recent decline to $80,500, with some analysts noting that such levels historically precede significant rebounds. For instance, a similar dip to 0.86 in April 2025 was followed by a 50% rally to $112,000. However, experts caution that no single indicator guarantees price direction, emphasizing the need to monitor broader on-chain signals alongside the Puell Multiple.

The current market environment has also seen other metrics align with a potential recovery. The MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin's market value to realized value, has dropped to a two-year low, nearing levels that historically preceded sharp rallies. Meanwhile, the NVT Golden Cross has turned negative, suggesting undervaluation and short-term mean-reversion opportunities according to market analysis. These signals have fueled optimism among bulls, with some analysts assigning a 91% probability that Bitcoin will not retest its recent lows and could surge to $118,000.

Technical analysis further supports a near-term rebound. A bull flag pattern on the four-hour chart suggests a target of $96,800 if Bitcoin breaks above its recent resistance at $87,200. The relative strength index has also improved from oversold conditions, indicating gathering upward momentum. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has echoed this view, citing macroeconomic liquidity trends and the conclusion of the Fed's tightening cycle as catalysts for a "rising-tide" effect in crypto.

Despite these bullish arguments, caution persists. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that the $89,000 rebound could represent a "dead cat bounce," with a final leg lower still possible below $80,000. CryptoQuant highlighted that while the market has absorbed forced sellers, stability depends on traditional market conditions remaining favorable. For now, investors are balancing historical patterns with real-time data, awaiting confirmation of a sustained recovery.