Bitcoin News Today: Polymarket traders bet 88% Trump will mention Zelensky in Putin meeting but only 3% on crypto

Polymarket traders have shown strong interest in predicting how President Donald Trump will conduct himself during his news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, with significant wagers placed on whether certain key terms will be mentioned [1]. The prediction market has seen a total trading volume of nearly $200,000 across various phrases, with the highest volumes concentrated on terms such as “Zelensky” and “BRICS” or “NATO.” The “Zelensky” contract, priced at an 88% implied probability, has attracted $37,780 in trading volume, indicating a high likelihood that Trump will reference the Ukrainian leader during the meeting [1]. In contrast, the likelihood of Trump mentioning “crypto” or “Bitcoin” is assessed at just 3%, despite drawing over $51,700 in total volume. This suggests traders believe it is unlikely Trump will directly address cryptocurrency in the public setting [1].

The market for the duration of the leaders’ handshake has also attracted substantial attention, with over $180,000 in total volume. The most traded outcome is a handshake lasting 10 seconds or more, at 24% implied probability, followed by a 4–6 second duration at 27% [1]. These metrics reflect a crowd-sourced sentiment that the leaders may engage in a prolonged, possibly staged display of mutual respect, despite the tense geopolitical backdrop.

The event, which marks the first in-person meeting between Trump and Putin since 2019, has drawn scrutiny for excluding Ukrainian participation, a move that has been criticized by Kyiv and its European allies [1]. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is anticipated to present both economic proposals and territorial demands related to the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to reports from the Guardian [1]. This context has added to the geopolitical significance of the meeting, with traders closely watching for any implications on energy markets or broader macroeconomic sentiment.

Polymarket, a platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of political and geopolitical events, has become a key tool for gauging public sentiment. The platform previously hosted a market on whether the meeting would occur, with nearly $3 million in wagers before the event was confirmed [1]. As the meeting proceeds, traders are monitoring for any developments that may influence markets, particularly in energy and cryptocurrency. While Bitcoin and Ethereum may react to post-summit sentiment, the low probability of a “Crypto/Bitcoin” mention suggests traders do not expect the asset class to be directly referenced by Trump [1].

The market will resolve based on official video or audio from the event, with any usage of the specified terms, including plurals or possessive forms, counting toward settlement [1]. If Trump does not hold a public news conference by August 16, all contracts will default to a “No” resolution [1].

The summit, held at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson, comes at a time of heightened global attention on U.S.-Russia relations and the war in Ukraine. As traders place their bets, the outcomes will not only reflect the language used by Trump but also shape investor sentiment in the days and weeks ahead [1].

Source: [1] Polymarket traders go all in on Trump saying Zelensky during Putin meeting but shunning Bitcoin (https://cryptoslate.com/polymarket-traders-go-all-in-on-trump-saying-zelensky-during-putin-meeting-but-shunning-bitcoin/)