Bitcoin News Today: Peter Brandt Warns 30% Chance Bitcoin Cycle Peak Passed Triggers Retracement Risk

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Saturday, Aug 16, 2025 3:06 am ET1min read
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- Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns Bitcoin’s bull cycle may have peaked, with a 30% chance of a $60,000–$70,000 retracement before further gains.

- He emphasizes macroeconomic risks and dollar weakness as key drivers, cautioning against over-reliance on technical analysis for crypto price trends.

- Market reactions are mixed, with some traders hedging positions amid $1B in liquidations and 1% price drops linked to U.S. inflation data.

- Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains strong, though Brandt highlights inherent risks of non-linear growth paths and prolonged corrections.

Peter Brandt, a veteran trader with decades of global market experience, has recently sparked a heated debate about whether Bitcoin’s current bull cycle has already reached its peak. According to Brandt, there is a 30% probability that Bitcoin’s top has already passed, potentially triggering a retracement to between $60,000 and $70,000 before another significant rally [1]. His comments, which emphasize the unpredictable nature of crypto cycles and the importance of broader macroeconomic factors, have introduced a cautious tone into what has otherwise been a bullish market environment [2].

Brandt’s concerns extend beyond technical analysis. He has highlighted the risks of over-reliance on chart patterns, noting that macroeconomic variables and investor sentiment can significantly influence price trajectories [3]. This perspective aligns with his broader macroeconomic views, including his belief that the US dollar may face a sharp decline, making

Bitcoin
an attractive alternative asset [4]. However, he warns that even if the cryptocurrency eventually reaches multi-hundred thousand price levels, the path will likely be non-linear, with potential for prolonged corrections [5].

The market has responded to Brandt’s outlook with mixed reactions. Some traders are interpreting his 30% probability of a cycle top as a signal to reduce exposure or implement hedging strategies, while others remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory [1]. Recent price fluctuations, including a 1% drop amid U.S. inflation data and $1 billion in liquidations, have also added to the uncertainty [1].

Despite these short-term dynamics, the broader narrative around Bitcoin remains robust. Analysts and investors continue to see substantial long-term potential for the asset. However, Brandt’s comments serve as a timely reminder that even in a bull market, volatility and the risk of retracement are inherent risks [5].

Source: [1] Bitcoin News Today – Bitcoin Drops 1% Amid U.S. Inflation Data and $1B Liquidations https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-drops-1-inflation-data-1b-liquidations-2508/

[2] Bitcoin News Today – Bitcoin Charts Mirror 2021 Pattern https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-charts-mirror-2021-pattern-traders-debate-history-repeating-2508/

[3] Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) / X https://x.com/peterlbrandt?lang=en

[4] Bitcoin: News & Updates https://cryptodnes.bg/en/tag/bitcoin/page/73/

[5] Bitcoin Price Today – Latest News https://stocktwits.com/symbol/BTC.X