Bitcoin News Today: Pantera's 2022 Bitcoin Prediction Hits 99.8% Accuracy in August 2025

Pantera Capital’s 2022 Bitcoin price projection has proven nearly accurate as of August 11, 2025, with Bitcoin closing above $119,000, according to Coin Metrics data cited by CNBC. The firm had mapped Bitcoin’s historical halving cycles and projected a price of $117,482 for that specific date, factoring in the typical timing between market bottoms and post-halving rallies [1]. At the time of the forecast, Bitcoin was approaching its cycle low, falling below $16,000 on Nov. 21, 2022, according to Bitbo. The asset has since surged more than 660%, highlighting the continued influence of Bitcoin’s supply-driven cycles [1].

The firm’s approach aligns with a broader analytical framework that tracks Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles and the associated price patterns. This method, also employed by analyst Bob Loukas, has demonstrated predictive accuracy. Loukas identified the start of a new cycle in January 2023, less than two months after Bitcoin reached its bottom [1]. Both Pantera and Loukas rely on the historical tendency of Bitcoin to experience a post-halving rally, followed by a peak, correction, and accumulation phase [1].

The success of these models has reignited debates about the future of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior. Critics argue that the increasing institutionalization of Bitcoin—evidenced by the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate holdings—may disrupt the traditional four-year pattern. As of January 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs became the most successful ETF debut in history, with ETFs holding 7.1% of Bitcoin’s supply—approximately 1.491 million BTC, according to Bitbo. Public and private companies together hold an additional 1.36 million BTC [1].

Some analysts, including Jason Williams and Pierre Rochard, have suggested that the traditional halving cycle is losing relevance. Williams attributes this to the emergence of corporate treasury-holding companies, while Rochard argues that 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined, making halvings less impactful on trading float. He emphasizes that demand now comes from a broader base, including retail investors, ETFs, and institutional accumulation [1].

Despite these arguments, the near-perfect alignment of Pantera’s forecast with the actual price movement in August 2025 suggests that historical supply mechanics still hold predictive value, even as the market evolves. The current price environment, with Bitcoin trading near $120,000, supports the idea that fundamental drivers such as scarcity and supply shocks continue to shape market dynamics [1]. This development invites further scrutiny into whether institutionalization and regulatory clarity will ultimately reinforce or disrupt these patterns.

Source:

[1] Cointelegraph – [https://cointelegraph.com/news/pantera-bitcoin-halving-prediction-2025-accuracy](https://cointelegraph.com/news/pantera-bitcoin-halving-prediction-2025-accuracy)