Bitcoin News Today: "Oversold Bitcoin: Rebound Signal or Deeper Decline?"

Bitcoin's 28% Plunge Triggers Oversold Signal, RSI Hits 2023 Lows

Bitcoin's price has plummeted to its lowest level in over six months, with the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) falling 2.09% to $84,535.40 as of 4 p.m. ET on November 21, 2025, marking its weakest close since April 18, 2025. The decline has pushed the 14-day relative strength index (RSI)-a critical momentum indicator-below the 30 threshold, signaling an oversold condition. This is the first time since February 2025 that the RSI has entered oversold territory, a development that has historically preceded pauses in downward trends or potential rebounds.

The recent selloff has erased 10.32% of Bitcoin's value this week alone, the worst weekly performance since February 2025. Over the past three days, the cryptocurrency has lost 8.89%, its worst three-day stretch since October 11, 2025, and is now down 22.99% month-to-date. Analysts note that while an oversold RSI typically suggests a potential rebound, it should not be interpreted as a definitive reversal signal. "The RSI can remain in oversold territory for extended periods, and experienced traders often view it as a sign of strong downward momentum rather than an immediate reversal," said Omkar Godbole, a Chartered Market Technician at Coindesk.

Historical context adds nuance to the current scenario. The last time Bitcoin's RSI dipped below 30 in late February 2025, the price was under $80,000. This marked a slowdown in the downtrend before a bottom formed near $75,000 in early April. Traders are now watching for similar patterns, including the emergence of support levels or candlestick formations like Doji or long lower wicks, which could indicate waning selling pressure.

The broader market also shows mixed signals. While Bitcoin's RSI remains at its lowest levels among large-cap cryptocurrencies, the average crypto RSI stands at 43.09, with only 2.5% of assets in overbought territory. This divergence highlights a transitional phase rather than a full-blown bear market. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator further supports this view, with 58% of market assets showing positive momentum.

Critically, the market is not yet in a confirmed bear trend. A full bear market would require Bitcoin to remain below its 365-day moving average for 4–6 weeks and sustained heavy distribution by long-term holders (LTHs). Currently, LTH selling has not reached the 1M BTC threshold over 60 days, which historically signals a cycle top. Additionally, the MACD has not turned fully negative across the entire market, a hallmark of bearish momentum.

As the market grapples with these signals, traders remain split between caution and optimism. The RSI's oversold reading and historical precedents suggest a pause in the downtrend, but without confirmation from price action or broader technical indicators, the path forward remains uncertain. For now, the focus is on whether Bitcoin can stabilize above key support levels or if further capitulation will cement a new bear market.