Bitcoin News Today: OpenAI AI predicts 30-40% chance Bitcoin falls below $100,000 by late 2025

An artificial intelligence model developed by OpenAI has projected a potential decline in Bitcoin’s price below $100,000 by August or early September 2025, despite the cryptocurrency’s recent rally to $117,000 [1]. The AI analysis, conducted via ChatGPT, identified key technical levels and market risks that could trigger a sell-off. It highlighted that Bitcoin is currently hovering near critical support at $116,000, with a breakdown expected to push prices toward $105,000 and $108,000. The model estimates a 30% to 40% probability of the asset falling beneath the $100,000 threshold within the forecasted timeframe [1].

The AI’s prediction underscores vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s recent momentum, particularly the reliance on spot ETF inflows, which have been a major driver of its record highs. On June 25, Bitcoin ETFs saw $130.8 million in inflows, contributing to a peak of $123,000 in mid-2025 [1]. However, the model warns that slowing ETF demand or a broader U.S. market correction could accelerate a downturn. Citi analysts have separately noted a base-case target of $135,000 for Bitcoin by year-end if inflows persist, but they also caution that a crash to $64,000 remains possible under adverse conditions [1].

Technical analysts have emphasized the significance of Bitcoin maintaining support above $116,000, a level described as a “key battleground” by cryptocurrency trading expert Michaël van de Poppe. Van de Poppe noted that sustained strength above this threshold could set the stage for new all-time highs, while a dip into the $110,000 to $112,000 range might offer accumulation opportunities for long-term investors [1]. The AI also highlighted Bitcoin’s growing correlation with the S&P 500, suggesting that broader equity market trends could amplify price swings in either direction [1].

Market observers caution that AI-generated forecasts should be interpreted alongside macroeconomic and regulatory developments. For example, the SEC’s delayed approval of Bitwise’s crypto ETF has already caused short-term volatility, demonstrating how regulatory uncertainty can override algorithmic projections [5]. Additionally, unforeseen events such as exchange hacks or sudden policy shifts remain key risks for the cryptocurrency’s stability.

As of July 2025, Bitcoin traded at $117,970, having gained 1% in the previous 24 hours but slipping 0.76% over the past week [1]. While the AI’s prediction of a sub-$100,000 price point introduces a significant risk scenario, market participants remain divided. Some investors are adopting hedging strategies in response to the warning, while others remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, particularly ahead of the 2028 halving event [6].

The interplay between algorithmic insights and real-world dynamics underscores the complexity of predicting Bitcoin’s short-term movements. Investors are advised to monitor ETF inflows, regulatory updates, and macroeconomic trends alongside AI-generated signals as the market navigates this pivotal period.

Sources:

[1] Finbold, [https://finbold.com/ai-sets-date-when-bitcoin-will-crash-below-100000/](https://finbold.com/ai-sets-date-when-bitcoin-will-crash-below-100000/)

[2] CoinDCX, [https://coindcx.com/blog/crypto-deep-dives/crypto-bull-run-2025/](https://coindcx.com/blog/crypto-deep-dives/crypto-bull-run-2025/)

[3] Polymarket, [https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125](https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125)

[4] Pintu, [https://pintu.co.id/en/news/185322-5-altcoins-to-buy-when-crypto-market-crashes](https://pintu.co.id/en/news/185322-5-altcoins-to-buy-when-crypto-market-crashes)

[5] The Economic Times, [https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/xrp-sinks-6-percent-again-as-sec-delays-bitwise-crypto-etf-is-the-dip-a-red-flag-or-a-golden-buy-signal-heres-the-2025-xrp-price-prediction-you-need-to-see/articleshow/122859722.cms](https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/xrp-sinks-6-percent-again-as-sec-delays-bitwise-crypto-etf-is-the-dip-a-red-flag-or-a-golden-buy-signal-heres-the-2025-xrp-price-prediction-you-need-to-see/articleshow/122859722.cms)

[6] AOL.com, [https://www.aol.com/3-reasons-buy-bitcoin-2028-084100269.html](https://www.aol.com/3-reasons-buy-bitcoin-2028-084100269.html)