Bitcoin News Today: OG Whales Drain Bitcoin as Price Balloons Toward Breaking Point

Bitcoin faces mounting downward pressure as key support levels come into focus amid ongoing market dynamics shaped by early investors and whale selling patterns. Recent price action has seen the cryptocurrency fall below $112,000, with analysts warning that further declines could push the price toward $110,500 and, subsequently, the critical $110,000 support level. The drop has been attributed in part to the liquidation of a large whale position, which offloaded 24,000 BTC—valued at over $2.7 billion—in a flash crash event that reversed the positive momentum from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium [2].

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo has highlighted that the sluggish price movement is partly due to the selling behavior of early Bitcoin investors, or “OG whales,” who have held their positions since as early as 2011. These early adopters, having bought Bitcoin at prices below $10, now hold significant influence over price action, as each BTC they sell requires substantial new capital—potentially exceeding $110,000—to absorb [1]. This dynamic creates a bottleneck for price appreciation and contributes to the “growing pains” Bitcoin is currently experiencing as these early investors gradually exit their positions [1].

However, not all analysts share the bearish view. Pseudonymous analyst Parman argues that the influence of 2011-era holders is overstated, noting that large-scale sell-offs are unlikely given the limited number of these early adopters and the vast capital they have tied up in Bitcoin [1]. Despite this counter-argument, the market appears to be reacting to on-chain data and technical indicators that suggest further downside is likely in the short term [2].

Adding to the bearish sentiment is the recent activity in Bitcoin ETFs, which offloaded approximately 8,850 BTC last week. This outflow coincided with a rise in open interest in futures contracts, indicating that leveraged long positions are being added as traders attempt to “buy the dip.” Historically, such positioning has led to sharper declines when liquidation events occur, raising concerns over the stability of the current support levels [2]. If Bitcoin continues to lose ground beyond $110,500, the next key level to watch is $108,000 [2].

Meanwhile, Diaman Partners has conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate potential Bitcoin support levels should a new crypto winter emerge in 2026. Based on the 200-week moving average and historical drawdown patterns, the firm estimates that Bitcoin could bottom out near $60,000, assuming the price remains aligned with previous cycles. A more aggressive scenario suggests a potential bottom of $80,000, contingent on Bitcoin reaching a new high before a significant correction [4]. While these projections are speculative, they underscore the importance of long-term risk management in a market that remains cyclical in nature.

On the broader institutional front, there are signs of continued interest in the market. BitMine, for instance, has added $252 million in Ether over the past week, with further $200 million in reserves available for more purchases. This, combined with ETF inflows, suggests that institutional demand remains robust despite the volatility [3]. Ethereum, in particular, appears to be outperforming Bitcoin in the short term, with key whales shifting capital from BTC to ETH and driving its price higher.

As the market grapples with these dynamics, analysts are closely watching both technical indicators and on-chain data to determine the next direction of the price. For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, with $110,000 acting as a crucial psychological and technical support level. A break below this could trigger a deeper correction, while a rebound and a sustained close above $112,600 could signal a potential reversal toward $115,000 [2].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Not Rising Quickly Enough? Analyst Says Early ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-not-rising-quickly-enough-203110676.html)

[2] Bitcoin 'Hanging By A Thread' Around $112,000, Analyst Warns (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-hanging-thread-around-112-233122642.html)

[3] Dormant Ethereum whale buys $28M ETH, ignites 'V-... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/dormant-ethereum-whale-buys-28m-eth-v-recovery)

[4] Estimating Bitcoin's support levels for the next cycle bottom (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-future-bear-market-bottom-could-be-dollar60k-data)