Bitcoin News Today: October's Bullish Pattern: Bitcoin's 50% to $140K

Bitcoin has a 50% probability of surpassing $140,000 by the end of October, according to simulations conducted by economist Timothy Peterson. These projections, derived from Bitcoin's historical price data since 2015, model the cryptocurrency's volatility and cyclical patterns to estimate end-of-month outcomes. Peterson's analysis suggests a 50% chance of Bitcoin closing above $140,000 and a 43% chance of finishing below $136,000, emphasizing that the simulations rely on real-world data rather than speculative assumptions Bitcoin $140K Odds at 50% for October: Economist^[1].

The prediction aligns with Bitcoin's historical October performance, which has averaged gains of 20.75% since 2013, making it the second-best month for the asset. At its current price of approximately $122,000, Bitcoin would need a 14.7% increase to reach $140,000, a target within historical precedent. Peterson attributes the likelihood of this outcome to institutional capital cycles, including Q3 portfolio rebalancing and fiscal year planning, which historically drive market activity in October Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $140K Target, Ethereum Tests ...^[2].

Market confidence in Bitcoin's upward trajectory remains strong despite short-term volatility. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products hit $3.55 billion weekly, pushing total assets under management to $195.2 billion. Exchange reserves for Bitcoin have also fallen to five-year lows, indicating sustained accumulation by investors. Futures markets show a $72 billion open interest, with an 8% annualized premium over spot prices, further signaling balanced market sentiment Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Price Prediction For …^[3].

While Peterson's simulations highlight a data-driven approach, past deviations from predicted trends underscore the risks. For instance, Bitcoin has occasionally underperformed expectations despite favorable historical patterns, particularly during events like the 2018 U.S. government shutdown. Analysts caution that macroeconomic uncertainties, including potential policy shifts or geopolitical tensions, could disrupt the projected trajectory Why Bitcoin's Price Could Reach $600,000 by October …^[4].

Broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Other analysts, such as Jelle and Matthew Hyland, argue that Bitcoin's recent retesting of all-time highs signals bearish momentum has waned. However, technical indicators like the 4-day moving average suggest a potential short-term correction to $105,000 if bearish signals intensify. Long-term fundamentals, including growing institutional adoption and declining exchange reserves, continue to support a bullish outlook Bitcoin Price Prediction: Experts Map Out the Key Levels To Watch in October as BTC Price Could Hit $144K^[5].