Bitcoin News Today: NUPL signals more stable crypto bull cycle amid cautious investor behavior

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator is signaling a more stable and extended bull cycle in the cryptocurrency market, diverging from the sharp price surges seen in previous cycles [1]. The current cycle appears to be marked by a shift in investor behavior, with a move away from speculative hype toward more strategic and measured participation [2]. This is evident in the gradual rise of the NUPL metric, which reflects the overall profitability of crypto investors, without hitting the "euphoria" levels that characterized the peaks of 2017 and 2021 [3].

NUPL is calculated by comparing the current market value of coins to their acquisition cost. A positive reading means more investors are in profit, while a negative value indicates more are in loss. In the current bull phase, NUPL has been rising steadily, but not at the extreme rates seen in past cycles, suggesting a more cautious and informed market [1]. Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have played a key role in this trend, with reduced selling pressure helping to stabilize Bitcoin’s price above $116,817 [3]. This behavior is seen as a positive sign, as LTHs historically have dictated major price movements through their buying and selling decisions.

The recent price rejection near $122,000 has not triggered a sharp decline, indicating strong buyer support at lower levels [3]. Market participants are now turning attention to key macroeconomic data, especially the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could influence the next major price movement. If inflation shows signs of easing, it may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, which could favor risk assets like Bitcoin [3]. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected inflation may prompt tighter monetary conditions, increasing the cost of holding non-yielding assets.

On-chain data further supports the view of a maturing market. The reduced selling activity among LTHs suggests either renewed confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value or a strategic decision to hold through near-term volatility [3]. This shift away from impulsive buying and panic selling has contributed to a more balanced and stable price environment, where both buyers and sellers are participating in a more measured manner [3].

While some analysts have speculated that the current trend may signal a longer-term bull phase, these remain forecasts and not confirmed market outcomes [3]. The true trajectory of the bull cycle will depend on the evolving macroeconomic landscape, on-chain activity, and overall investor sentiment in the coming months.

The current phase of consolidation is being interpreted as a necessary period of adjustment, allowing the market to process recent price developments before the next major move [3]. Compared to previous cycles, where rapid price swings often led to sharp corrections, the more measured nature of the current cycle suggests a more mature and less volatile environment for crypto investors. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin remains a volatile asset, and while the NUPL signal suggests a calmer bull market, caution is still essential.

The combination of a stabilizing price, reduced selling pressure from LTHs, and a more balanced NUPL reading points to a bull cycle that may be more sustainable and less prone to overheating [1][2][3]. As the market continues to evolve, investors are advised to adopt a strategic and patient approach, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term speculation.

Source:

[1] title: What does NUPL reveal about the current cycle? | CryptoQuant, url: https://cryptoquant.com/ko/insights/quicktake/689be31576426d34a66e8411-What-does-NUPL-reveal-about-the-current-cycle

[2] title: Analyzing Bitcoin's Most Important Cohort, url: https://substack.com/home/post/p-170704813?source=queue

[3] title: Bitcoin Finds Its Footing: Why a Long-Term Holder Truce Signals a Potential Turning Point, url: https://ibossumind.com/bitcoin-finds-its-footing-why-a-long-term-holder-truce-signals-a-potential-turning-point/