Bitcoin News Today: MVRV 365DMA Double-Top Pattern Sparks Crypto Cycle Peak Debate in 2025

The MVRV 365DMA has rekindled debates about a potential cycle peak in the cryptocurrency market, drawing parallels to its 2021 behavior. Analysts highlight that the metric is currently forming a "double-top camel pattern," a structure previously observed before the 2022 bear market. This pattern, characterized by a primary peak followed by a secondary peak six months later, historically signaled market exhaustion and a trend reversal. In 2025, the MVRV 365DMA is approaching its second peak, raising concerns that the current bull cycle may be nearing its upper bound [1].

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) 365DMA compares Bitcoin’s market value to its average realized value over the past 365 days, offering insights into overvaluation. High readings indicate prices are significantly above investors’ average cost basis, often preceding corrections. In 2021, the second peak of this metric aligned with the market’s top, suggesting a similar dynamic may be unfolding now [2]. However, some analysts caution that the MVRV is a lagging indicator. For instance, late August 2025 has been identified as a potential inflection point, earlier than the MVRV’s signal might imply [3].

Speculative forecasts have emerged, with analysts like @Yonsei_dent noting the current MVRV alignment with a cyclical peak. If Bitcoin maintains key support levels, projections suggest a potential rally to $130,000, though this hinges on technical conditions remaining intact [4]. Another perspective, from veteran trader Peter Brandt, forecasts a broader range of $125,000–$150,000 by late 2025, grounded in four-year cyclical patterns [5]. These divergent views underscore the uncertainty surrounding timing and price targets, emphasizing the need for caution.

Investors are urged to consider the MVRV in conjunction with other metrics, such as on-chain activity and macroeconomic trends. While the MVRV provides a historical framework, its lagging nature means price reversals could occur independently of its signals. Market participants should monitor real-time data, including support level integrity and external catalysts, to refine their strategies. A confirmed cycle peak could also influence capital allocation within crypto, potentially accelerating adoption in sectors like decentralized finance (DeFi) or cross-chain ecosystems.

Sources:

[1] [MVRV Indicator Suggests Potential Cycle Peak, Analyst Says](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/07-28-2025-mvrv-indicator-suggests-potential-cycle-peak-analyst-says-27544891118817)

[2] [MVRV Points to a Potential Cycle Peak — Late August May Be the Real Turning Point](https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6887232bb313d26da5589f24-MVRV-Points-to-a-Potential-Cycle-Peak-%E2%80%94-Late-August-May-Be-the-Real-Turning-Poin)

[3] [BandChain v3 Enhances Cross-Chain Data for DeFi](https://m.economictimes.com/crypto-news-today-live-28-jul-2025/liveblog/122939448.cms)

[4] [Analyst Predicts Bitcoin May Hit $130K if $110K Support Holds](https://coingape.com/analyst-predicts-bitcoin-may-hit-130k-if-110k-support-holds/)

[5] [Will Bitcoin Reach $200000? BTC Price Prediction 2025, A Detailed Analysis](https://eng.ambcrypto.com/will-bitcoin-reach-200000-bitcoin-price-prediction-2025-a-detailed-analysis/)