Bitcoin News Today: MSTR's Bitcoin Premium Vanishes—What's Driving the Strategic Shift?

MSTR has experienced significant underperformance in recent weeks, with shares falling 14.7% over the past month, lagging behind broader tech and software sectors. The decline marks a concerning trend for investors who had previously seen the stock trade at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings. As the world’s largest company by Bitcoin treasury, MSTR holds 628,791 bitcoins as of July 29, equivalent to approximately 3% of the total Bitcoin supply [1]. Despite this, the stock has struggled to maintain its former valuation, with its market value-to-Bitcoin holdings ratio, or mNAV premium, dropping from 3.4x in November to 1.6x as of recent [2].

The shift in performance has prompted key changes in MSTR’s capital structure strategy. Executive chairman Michael Saylor recently revised the company’s stock issuance rules, allowing MSTR to issue shares at a price below 2.5 times the value of its Bitcoin holdings, a marked reversal from its prior stance against share dilution [2]. This move comes as the company looks to continue accumulating Bitcoin despite a narrowing premium between the stock price and the underlying asset. Management has justified the change by emphasizing the need for greater flexibility in raising capital and covering expenses [2].

MSTR has continued to raise capital through preferred equity offerings, including STRK, STRF, STRD, and STRC, each offering varying dividend structures and yields. STRK provides an 8% dividend coupon with an effective yield of 7.5%, while STRF offers a 10% coupon and an 8.7% effective yield [1]. Stride, a related offering, provides a 10% coupon with an effective yield of 11.9%, making these instruments increasingly attractive to income-focused investors [1]. To date, the company has raised $10.7 billion in equities and $7.6 billion in fixed-income securities in 2025 [1].

Looking ahead, MSTR remains optimistic about its Bitcoin-based strategy. The company expects to achieve a 30% Bitcoin yield and $20 billion in gains if the price reaches $150,000 by year-end. As of the second quarter of 2025, MSTR’s year-to-date Bitcoin gain was $13.2 billion, with a 25% yield already achieved [1]. Under the same price assumption, the company forecasts operating income of $34 billion, net income of $24 billion, and earnings of $80 per share, outpacing projected losses at competitors like Riot Platforms and MARA Holdings [1].

Technical analysis also points to potential further downside for MSTR. The stock has traded flat near $360 for months, with analysts cautioning that a break below this level could lead to a decline toward $300 [2]. Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez has noted that the stock appears to be forming a classic head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish technical signal. Additionally, institutional investors such as Vanguard have reduced their holdings by 10% during the second quarter, signaling caution amid the stock’s volatility [2].

Source: [1] Strategy Falls 15% in a Month: Hold or Fold the MSTR Stock? (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-falls-15-month-hold-162300910.html) [2] Michael Saylor Flips on MSTR Stock Issuance Rules As Strategy Loses Bitcoin Premium (https://coingape.com/michael-saylor-flips-on-mstr-stock-issuance-rules-as-strategy-loses-bitcoin-premium/)