Bitcoin News Today: Morgan Stanley: Harvest Bitcoin Gains Before Crypto Winter Sets In

Morgan Stanley has issued a cautionary call for Bitcoin investors, likening the current phase of the cryptocurrency's four-year cycle to an autumn season-emphasizing the need to secure gains amid signs of a potential downturn. In a recent analysis, Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management highlighted historical patterns suggesting a "three-up, one-down" rhythm in Bitcoin's price cycles. This framework positions the current period as a time to "harvest" profits before a crypto winter, mirroring cyclical investment strategies used in traditional markets.

The firm's warning comes as Bitcoin's price dipped below $99,000 on Nov. 5, breaching its 365-day moving average-a key technical indicator often viewed as a bearish signal. According to Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant, this drop underscores a shift in market sentiment, with analysts labeling the move as marking a "technical bear market." The 365-day moving average, a widely tracked metric, typically reflects the overall direction of the market. Meanwhile, market-maker Wintermute noted that liquidity drivers such as stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries have stalled, compounding concerns.

The bearish trend is further reinforced by recent outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Data from SoSoValue revealed that U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced $870 million in outflows on Nov. 14, the highest since mid-October. Grayscale's GBTC led the exodus with $318 million in outflows, followed by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. Similarly, Ethereum ETFs recorded $260 million in outflows, with no inflows since Nov. 6. These figures highlight waning institutional and retail demand, complicating Bitcoin's recovery prospects.

Technical indicators also paint a grim picture. Bitcoin's 50-day EMA crossed below its 100-day EMA on Nov. 4, forming a "Death Cross" pattern-a bearish signal often associated with prolonged downturns. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 32, indicating intensifying bearish momentum. If Bitcoin breaks below its immediate support at $95,933, further declines toward $90,000 could follow.

The broader crypto market has mirrored Bitcoin's struggles. Ethereum and XRP have both slid below key technical levels, with Ethereum's RSI approaching oversold territory and XRP's futures open interest hovering near $3.78 billion-a sign of weak retail demand. Polymarket traders even profited from false speculation that Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin, exacerbating market volatility.

Morgan Stanley's cyclical framework underscores a growing consensus among Wall Street analysts that Bitcoin's market dynamics are increasingly resembling traditional asset classes. However, the firm's warnings come amid broader challenges for the crypto sector, including regulatory scrutiny and macroeconomic uncertainty. As the "harvest season" unfolds, investors are left weighing short-term gains against the looming shadow of a potential crypto winter.