Bitcoin News Today: Miners and Fed Policies Hold Keys to Bitcoin's $130K Fate

Bitcoin's price has consolidated near $115,000 as stabilizing miner reserves and improving on-chain metrics ease sell pressure, fueling speculation that a breakout above $120,000 could trigger a rally toward $125,000–$130,000. Analysts highlight a confluence of macroeconomic catalysts, technical indicators, and institutional demand as pivotal to BTC's next move, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and U.S.-China trade developments adding to the volatility.

Bitcoin's recent performance reflects a shift in miner behavior, with reserves stabilizing after months of forced selling to cover operational costs post-halving, according to a Crypto.news analysis. This has alleviated structural sell pressure, while rising transaction fees and Layer-2 adoption have bolstered miner profitability, the analysis noted. On-chain data also shows "smart accumulation," with Bitcoin ETFs attracting $149 million in net inflows on October 27—the third consecutive day of positive institutional demand, as a Yahoo Finance report showed. Meanwhile, the Spot-to-Perpetual Volume Ratio on Binance remains elevated, signaling sustained spot buying, the same Yahoo piece added.

Technical analysis points to critical thresholds. Bitcoin's 50-day EMA at $114,250 represents a key barrier to overcome for near-term bullish momentum, as a Yahoo report notes. A sustained move above $118K–$120K could reignite a rally toward $125K–$130K, levels previously reached during post-halving euphoria, the Crypto.news analysis suggested. Conversely, a drop below $110K risks renewed miner capitulation and macro-driven downside pressure, the same analysis warned. The RSI has rebounded from oversold levels, and Chaikin Money Flow metrics show balanced inflows and outflows, suggesting consolidation ahead of a potential breakout, the Yahoo piece observed.

Macro factors are equally influential. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on October 30, with further cuts anticipated in 2025, according to the Yahoo coverage. Dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, including comments on nearing the end of quantitative tightening, could boost liquidity and risk appetite. Meanwhile, easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a potential Trump–Xi trade deal ahead of the APEC Summit have raised hopes for reduced geopolitical risk, according to a Sherwood News report.

However, risks persist. Derivatives data shows reduced leverage and balanced open interest, but a drop below $109K could trigger a retest of $104.5K, a critical demand zone, the Yahoo piece cautioned. On-chain activity remains muted, with lower transaction volumes and active addresses indicating consolidation, the same Yahoo report added. Additionally, any hawkish surprises from the Fed or setbacks in U.S.-China negotiations could trigger sharp reversals, a KuCoin note warned.

Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a rotation back into crypto, with $446 million in inflows last week, KuCoin reported. Institutional buyers, including American Bitcoin and Strategy, have added to their holdings, the KuCoin note said. Analysts like Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered note the bitcoin-gold ratio rising as a positive sign, with further ETF inflows potentially solidifying BTC's trajectory.

The path forward hinges on sustained ETF inflows, a Fed rate cut, and continued on-chain accumulation. If these factors align, Bitcoin could target $130K by year-end. A breakdown below $110K, however, would reignite concerns over miner solvency and macroeconomic headwinds.