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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) reclaimed the $90,000 threshold on Wednesday, marking its first close above that level in nearly a week amid a broader rebound from a sharp slump that saw prices dip as low as $80,400 on Nov. 21
. The 3% gain in 24 hours brought optimism to a market grappling with a ~$3.79 billion exodus from exchange-traded funds in November alone . However, the rally remains fragile, with still down 19% month-to-date and 5% year-to-date, as traders weigh the sustainability of the recovery against persistent macroeconomic headwinds and structural selling pressures.The recent volatility reflects a tug-of-war between institutional and retail forces. While large whale wallets and retail investors continued to offload holdings, mid-sized holders-those with 10–1,000 BTC-emerged as stabilizing actors,
, a record high for accumulator demand. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a rare $238 million inflow on Tuesday, signaling tentative re-entry by institutional liquidity after weeks of deleveraging . Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto trading platform VALR, noted that the rebound could gain traction only if BTC decisively breaks above $90,000 with renewed retail volume and sustained ETF flows .
The market's fragility was underscored by broader macroeconomic trends. The Federal Reserve's November meeting dashed hopes for rate cuts in December, while rising Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar eroded risk-on sentiment
. Additionally, miners, who had been net sellers for two weeks in November, before resuming accumulation. Analysts highlighted the rotation of capital into high-beta altcoins like (SOL-USD) and (XRP-USD), which saw institutional inflows outpace Bitcoin's as investors sought near-term gains .Looking ahead, the path for BTC remains uncertain.
could trigger a retest of the $102,600 resistance level, but failure to hold the $85,000 support zone risks a slide toward $83,500, a key Fibonacci retracement level. CryptoQuant's report warned that the 2022–2025 bull cycle may be drawing to a close, and Bitcoin treasury launches no longer driving demand. Yet, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic, noting that post-halving cycles historically feature sharp corrections before final rallies, and that long-term holders continue to accumulate despite ETF outflows .As the market approaches Thanksgiving, the focus will likely shift to the December Fed meeting and potential shifts in institutional positioning. For now, Bitcoin's fate hinges on whether stabilizing accumulation by mid-sized holders and ETF inflows can offset the lingering effects of a bearish macro environment.
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