Bitcoin News Today: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Gamble Reaches Critical Threshold as mNAV Near Parity

Bitcoin's valuation metric hints at a 'possible bottom' forming: Analysis

MicroStrategy's (MSTR) market capitalization-to-adjusted net asset value (mNAV) ratio has edged closer to 1, signaling a potential inflection point in its Bitcoin-driven strategy. The metric, a key indicator of whether buying the company's stock or purchasing Bitcoin directly is more attractive, currently stands at 1.04 after dilution, according to StrategyTracker data mNAV analysis. This near-parity follows a 26% yield on its Bitcoin holdings in 2025 and a Q3 net profit of $2.8 billion, driven by $3.9 billion in unrealized gains, according to a Bitget report.

The company's aggressive Bitcoin accumulation continued in late October and early November 2025, with MicroStrategy acquiring 397 BTC for $45.6 million at an average cost of $114,771 per coin. This brought its total holdings to 641,205 BTC, valued at $69 billion, despite Bitcoin's price slipping below $108,000—a first for the cryptocurrency since 2018, according to a CoinDesk article. CEO Phong Le acknowledged during the Q3 earnings call that the firm is exploring Bitcoin derivatives or equity swaps to maintain dividends without further diluting shareholders, as the mNAV approaches critical levels, as noted in the Bitget coverage.

MicroStrategy's financials reflect both the risks and rewards of its Bitcoin-centric treasury. The firm's mNAV ratio, which measures the company's enterprise value relative to its Bitcoin holdings, had previously been a safeguard against equity dilution. However, the metric's decline to 1.04—down from a prior threshold of 2.5—has constrained new Bitcoin purchases funded by equity sales, according to a CryptoTimes analysis. CFO Andrew Kang projected $34 billion in operating income and $24 billion in net profit for 2025, contingent on Bitcoin averaging $150,000 by year-end. Yet analysts caution that the company's leverage and single-asset focus expose it to volatility, particularly if Bitcoin's price weakens, a point highlighted in the markets analysis.

The broader market context adds urgency to MicroStrategy's strategy. Bitcoin's recent correction, which saw it drop over 3.5% to $107,000, coincided with U.S.-China trade tensions and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, according to an FXStreet analysis. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $789 million in weekly outflows, reflecting waning institutional confidence. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks restricting access to Nvidia's advanced AI chips tempered optimism, exacerbating risk-off sentiment, a development also noted by FXStreet.

Despite these headwinds, MicroStrategy remains committed to its long-term vision. The company raised $19.8 billion through preferred and common stock sales in 2025, funding purchases that now account for over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply, as detailed in the Bitget coverage. CEO Michael Saylor, however, faces growing scrutiny as the mNAV nears parity and Bitcoin's price remains volatile. "Each filing adds to the discussion around how corporations manage digital assets," noted a CoinTimes analysis.

The path forward hinges on Bitcoin's resilience. If the cryptocurrency rebounds, MicroStrategy's strategy could justify its risks. But as Tom Lee of BitMine Immersion Technologies recently highlighted in a CoinDesk piece, the broader crypto sector is navigating a challenging landscape, with many firms pivoting to buybacks amid weak equity performance. For now, the market watches closely as MicroStrategy's mNAV approaches a critical threshold—and Bitcoin's valuation metric hints at a possible bottom.