Bitcoin News Today: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Bet Hangs in Balance as MSCI Exclusion Looms

MicroStrategy (MSTR) CEO Michael Saylor has reaffirmed his unwavering commitment to Bitcoin amid a sharp market downturn, with recent data showing broad support from the crypto community for holding through the volatility. A poll conducted by Saylor's firm revealed 77.8% of respondents reported they "HODLed" through the recent sell-off, indicating confidence in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory despite a 30% price drop since October.

The company's Bitcoin holdings, now totaling 649,870 BTC (3.2% of the circulating supply), remain a cornerstone of its strategy. However, recent purchases made at an average price of $102,171 per bitcoin are now underwater as the asset trades near $90,300. Approximately 40% of Strategy's holdings are currently in the red, with the newest 8,178 BTC purchase losing 10.5% of its value in just days. Despite this, Saylor maintains that the firm's position remains profitable overall, with a paper gain of $11 billion at current prices.

The stock market reaction has been more volatile. MSTR shares have fallen to around $173.50, erasing nearly the entire premium over the company's net asset value (NAV) and triggering concerns about its index inclusion. JPMorgan analysts warned that if MSCI excludes crypto treasury companies from its indices - a decision expected by January 15, 2026 - Strategy could face $2.8 billion in outflows from MSCI indexes alone, with additional losses if other providers follow. Saylor has pushed back, arguing that the firm is not a passive fund or holding company but a "Bitcoin-backed structured finance company" with a software business and operational model distinct from traditional index constituents.

Analysts remain divided on Strategy's sustainability. Critics like Peter Schiff question the leverage and valuation, while Saylor's supporters view the recent dip as an opportunity to "buy the dip," with the company's recent $835.6 million purchase of BTC at $102,171 per coin signaling continued confidence. The outcome of the MSCI review and Bitcoin's price action in the coming months will likely determine whether Strategy's bold strategy remains a blueprint for corporate Bitcoin adoption or becomes a cautionary tale.

The proposed exclusion has sparked backlash within the Bitcoin community. Influential advocates like Grant Cardone and Max Keiser have called for a boycott of JPMorgan, criticizing the bank for sharing the MSCI news in a research note that could trigger forced selling by index-tracking funds. Saylor reiterated his stance on X, stating, "Our strategy is long-term, our conviction in Bitcoin is unwavering, and our mission remains unchanged."