Bitcoin News Today: Metaplanet Stock Plummets 40% Despite 20% Bitcoin Gains as Valuation Concerns and Dilution Drive Decline

Metaplanet’s stock has entered a bear market this month, plummeting nearly 40% from its peak of ¥1,934 to ¥1,180, its lowest level since June 3, 2025 [1]. Despite the company’s Bitcoin holdings—16,352 coins valued at $1.9 billion—appreciating by 20% year-to-date, the stock has underperformed broader Bitcoin treasury peers like Marathon Digital and Semler Scientific. Analysts and market observers have identified several factors contributing to the decline, including valuation concerns, stock dilution, and sector-wide underperformance.

The company’s net asset value (NAV) multiple of 2.79 is a key point of scrutiny, significantly higher than Strategy’s 1.6 and under 2.0 for other Bitcoin treasury firms [1]. This premium suggests investors may be demanding higher returns to justify the elevated valuation, a challenge in a market where peers trade at lower multiples. Additionally, Metaplanet’s strategy of issuing shares to fund Bitcoin purchases has raised concerns. Outstanding shares surged from 57 million in 2022 to 459 million, reflecting a dilution approach critics argue could erode investor value over time [1]. The company aims to expand its Bitcoin holdings to 100,000 coins, but the pace of dilution has drawn skepticism about its long-term impact on equity ownership.

The stock’s performance also mirrors broader sector struggles. For example, MSTR remains 25% below its all-time high despite Bitcoin nearing its peak [1]. This underperformance highlights potential macroeconomic or sector-specific pressures, such as regulatory uncertainties or shifting investor risk appetite. Meanwhile, the recent 12,900% rally from 2024 lows to an all-time high has triggered profit-taking, a common phenomenon in speculative assets following sharp surges [1].

Technical analysis offers cautious optimism. The stock has stabilized near the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at ¥1,200 and remains above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages [1]. A hammer candlestick pattern—a small body with a long lower shadow—suggests potential short-term support, particularly if Bitcoin rebounds. However, these signals are not guarantees of a reversal and depend on broader market dynamics.

The decline reflects broader parallels with Bitcoin’s behavior, where post-bull-run corrections often precede renewed upward momentum [3]. While such comparisons are observational, they underscore the intertwined nature of Bitcoin’s price action and related equities. For now, the bearish trend persists, with investors closely watching for signs of stabilization in both the stock and the broader market.

Sources:

[1] [Here’s why Metaplanet stock price is stuck in a bear market](https://crypto.news/heres-why-metaplanet-stock-price-is-stuck-in-a-bear-market/)

[2] [Why Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Might Be the Smartest Crypto...](https://medium.com/@sibumatomane99/why-bitcoin-treasury-stocks-might-be-the-smartest-crypto-play-this-cycle-6d6f75a8d817)

[3] [General - Blog Headlines & Articles | I3investor](https://klse.i3investor.com/web/headline/blog?type=general)