Bitcoin News Today: Metaplanet's Bitcoin Bubble Bursts as Market Cap Dips Below Holdings

Japan's Metaplanet Inc. has seen its modified net asset value (mNAV) metric fall to 0.99, marking a historic shift as its market capitalization dipped below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The decline, reported on October 14, 2025, signals waning investor confidence in digital-asset treasury firms and reflects broader market fatigue after a summer of euphoria-driven premiums. The company, once trading at a 1.9x mNAV premium, now faces a precarious position as its stock price has plunged 70% from mid-June highs.

Metaplanet's aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, which began in April 2024, initially mirrored the playbook of U.S. corporate pioneer MicroStrategy. The Tokyo-listed firm has amassed over 18,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $2.18 billion at current prices. However, its Q2 2025 financials reveal a mixed picture: while revenue and gross profit surged by 41% and 38% respectively, its mNAV decline underscores the risks of leveraged crypto treasury strategies. The company's recent bond issuance-raising $1.4 billion to fund further BTC purchases-has not yet reversed the downward trend.

The mNAV drop to 0.99 aligns with a broader correction in the corporate Bitcoin sector. As of September 2025, Metaplanet's market cap stood at $3.88 billion, slightly below its Bitcoin holdings' $4.1 billion valuation. Analysts attribute the decline to a combination of macroeconomic pressures and shifting risk appetite. "This is a popping of a bubble," said Mark Chadwick of Smartkarma, noting that the "general euphoria" around Bitcoin treasury stocks has cooled. Meanwhile, long-term Bitcoin holders have been incrementally selling, adding short-term downward pressure on prices.

Despite the slump, some observers see opportunity. Adam Back of Blockstream highlighted Metaplanet's efficiency in Bitcoin value accumulation, noting its "months to mNAV cover" metric is 3.8 times faster than MicroStrategy's. This rapid appreciation of Bitcoin holdings could theoretically support a rebound, though Back's projected 150% upside to 1,340 yen per share assumes sustained BTC price growth.

Metaplanet's strategy-aggressive debt financing and equity issuance to buy Bitcoin-has drawn both praise and criticism. While its Q2 2025 results showed a 299% surge in net assets, the company now faces scrutiny over its ability to maintain profitability amid a tightening capital environment. "The model works only as long as the premium remains," warned VanEck's Matthew Sigel, explaining that equity issuance becomes dilutive once a stock trades at or below NAV.

The firm's recent 497 BTC purchase for $43.9 million-bringing its total holdings to 2,888 BTC-demonstrates its commitment to the strategy. Yet, with Bitcoin trading near $120,200, the market remains wary of over-leveraged plays. Metaplanet's 17% stock rally on October 15, coinciding with a Nikkei 225 advance, suggests lingering investor hope, but analysts caution that structural challenges persist.

The Metaplanet case highlights the fragility of mNAV premiums in a maturing market. As of June 2025, 13% of tracked Bitcoin treasury companies traded at discounts, with firms like Semler Scientific (mNAV 0.8x) facing similar pressures. The trend signals a recalibration in how investors value crypto-backed equities, prioritizing fundamentals over narrative-driven speculation.

For now, Metaplanet's survival hinges on Bitcoin's price trajectory and its ability to execute its 2025–2026 accumulation targets (10,000 and 21,000 BTC, respectively). If BTC continues to appreciate, the firm's discounted mNAV could attract bargain hunters. But in a prolonged bear market, its debt-laden structure may prove unsustainable.

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[1] Metaplanet Bitcoin Reserves Explode: Reports 299% Asset Growth (https://www.coin-views.com/2025/08/metaplanet-bitcoin-reserves-explode.html)

[2] Metaplanet's Enterprise Value Sinks Below Bitcoin Holdings (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-14/metaplanet-s-enterprise-value-sinks-below-bitcoin-holdings)

[3] Metaplanet Bitcoin: Accelerated Growth Outpaces MicroStrategy ... (https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604750364)

[5] What is mNAV and why does it matter (https://newsletter.bitcointreasuries.net/p/what-is-mnav-and-why-does-it-matter-a27fc2da7006a52a)

[6] Why mNAV Matters: Understanding Bitcoin Treasury Premiums (https://www.blockspaceforce.com/research/bitcoin-treasury-stocks-mnav-premium-explained)

[7] Why Are Bitcoin Treasury Companies Trading at Such High Premiums to NAV? (https://www.gate.com/learn/articles/why-are-bitcoin-treasury-companies-trading-at-such-high-premiums-to-nav/10104)

[10] Metaplanet Inc. (3350.T) - Market capitalization (https://companiesmarketcap.com/metaplanet-inc/marketcap/)

[11] Metaplanet Inc. - Bitcoin Treasury Holdings & Analysis (https://bitcointreasuries.net/public-companies/metaplanet)

[12] Metaplanet Continues Bitcoin Accumulation... (https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/metaplanet-continues-bitcoin-accumulation-acquiring-dollar439-million-in-btc)