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Max Keiser, a prominent digital asset commentator and former economic advisor to the president of El Salvador, has sounded a cautionary note regarding Bitcoin’s current price trajectory, warning of a potential sharp correction fueled by the growing influence of leveraged derivatives in the market. Citing the 2021 liquidation event—where $10 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out within a single week—Keiser argues that similar conditions could reemerge if derivatives activity encounters a sudden downturn [1]. His concerns reflect a broader unease over how increasing leverage in the market could amplify volatility and lead to sudden, severe price corrections.
These warnings come at a time when the traditional four-year
price cycles—historically tied to halving events—are being increasingly questioned by analysts. Pierre Rochard, a vocal Bitcoin advocate, has pointed to a structural shift in market dynamics, noting that with 95% of the total supply already mined, halving events are having a diminished impact on price action. Rochard argues that the current demand for Bitcoin is primarily driven by retail spot buyers, exchange-traded products, and corporate treasury accumulation, rather than speculative trading patterns that historically defined Bitcoin’s price movements [1].Despite these concerns, Bitcoin remains resilient in the short term, trading at $120,726 as of August 12, 2025, after a brief pullback to $119,590. The price has been supported in part by continued corporate buying, most recently highlighted by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, which added 155 BTC to its portfolio in an $18 million purchase. MicroStrategy now holds a total of 628,946 BTC, with the overall value of its holdings reaching approximately $75.74 billion, and an average acquisition cost of $73,288 per coin [1]. Such accumulation not only drives demand but also contributes to price stability in the face of market uncertainty.
The evolving nature of the Bitcoin market—now marked by increased participation from institutional investors, a shift in demand drivers, and the expansion of derivatives—suggests that future price behavior may diverge significantly from historical patterns. Analysts suggest that macroeconomic factors, liquidity conditions, and leverage levels will increasingly shape Bitcoin’s price dynamics in the coming months. While some investors continue to rely on the “Bitcoin season” narrative, Keiser’s warning underscores the need for a more nuanced and cautious approach to investment in the current environment.
[1] Bitcoin Cycles Questioned as Max Keiser Warns of Price Correction (https://cryptofrontnews.com/bitcoin-cycles-questioned-as-max-keiser-warns/)
[2] Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Price Cycles Lose Predictive (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-price-cycles-lose-predictive-power-market-structure-shifts-2508/)

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