Bitcoin News Today: Markets Price 92% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in September After Weak Jobs Data

Markets are increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the probability now standing at 92%, up from 38% just over two weeks ago. This shift follows a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, which showed only 100,002 new jobs added—well below the forecasted 226,000. The weak labor data has raised expectations that the Fed may ease monetary policy to support a slowing economy, fueling optimism about a potential rally in both equity and cryptocurrency markets [1].

Crypto analyst Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) noted that smaller cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) could benefit from a rate cut. In particular, Bitcoin may see upward pressure toward $70,000+ if the Fed reduces borrowing costs. Equity markets—especially those heavily weighted toward technology—are also expected to gain, as lower interest rates could incentivize corporate buybacks and increase stock valuations [1].

Despite this bullish market sentiment, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance. He has reiterated that the Fed’s decisions will be data-dependent, emphasizing that monetary easing will occur only if economic conditions justify it. Powell has warned against making hasty decisions based on political pressure or market expectations, and he has highlighted the risks of rising inflation, global market volatility, and potential trade policy developments as key considerations [1].

Jamie Cox, managing partner at a financial firm, pointed out that the rapid rise in rate-cut odds reflects growing investor concerns about a slowing economy and a shift in the Fed’s policy outlook. However, analysts caution that if inflation shows unexpected strength in August or September, the Fed could reduce the size of the rate cut or delay action altogether, which could undermine the current market optimism [1].

Political pressures have also emerged, with President Trump publicly urging the Fed to lower interest rates, arguing that doing so is essential to maintaining economic momentum. This stance contrasts with the Fed’s more measured, data-driven strategy and highlights the potential for external influence on monetary policy decisions [9].

As the market awaits the Fed’s next move, investors are closely monitoring the potential impact across asset classes. Equity markets are on alert for a potential rebound, while cryptocurrencies remain in focus due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes. The U.S. dollar has shown mixed performance against the euro and yen in recent days, adding another layer of complexity to the evolving market environment [10].

The Fed’s decision will not only shape near-term financial market dynamics but also influence broader economic expectations. For now, the 92% probability of a rate cut in September reflects a significant shift in market sentiment, though it remains contingent on the latest economic data and policy developments.