Bitcoin News Today: Markets Navigate Fragile Equilibrium Amid Fed Caution, Crypto Volatility, and Uneven Trade Truce

The Federal Reserve's absence of aggressive liquidity injections has left global markets navigating a fragile equilibrium amid shifting trade dynamics and crypto sector volatility. Despite the central bank's recent 25-basis-point rate cut and the conclusion of its quantitative tightening (QT) cycle, asset classes like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under pressure, as investors weigh the implications of U.S.-China trade developments and regulatory shifts in digital finance.

The Trump-Xi summit in Busan, South Korea, marked a pivotal but cautious step in easing trade tensions, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese imports to 47% from 57% and securing commitments from Beijing to resume rare earth material exports and enforce fentanyl export controls, according to a Bitget report. However, markets responded with restraint, as the Shanghai Composite dipped from a decade high and U.S. soybean futures faltered. Analysts noted that the deal, while significant, fell short of expectations for a full removal of fentanyl-related tariffs, tempering bullish sentiment, the Bitget report added.

The Fed's dovish pivot, meanwhile, has yet to translate into a clear "risk-on" environment. While the end of QT theoretically eases financial system liquidity, Chair Jerome Powell's remarks sowed uncertainty by suggesting a December rate cut is not guaranteed, as Cointelegraph reported. "Policy is not on a preset course," Powell emphasized, citing divergent views among FOMC members and data gaps caused by the prolonged government shutdown, according to an FXStreet analysis. This ambiguity has triggered over $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations, with Bitcoin sliding below $108,000 and Ethereum breaching $3,900, Coinotag reported.

Compounding these pressures, the crypto sector faces a regulatory crossroads. The Senate Agriculture Committee's impending crypto market structure bill aims to clarify CFTC oversight of digital commodities, expanding authority over spot markets and derivatives, Blockonomi reported. Concurrently, institutional players are deepening their footprint: Wyden's integration of Nomura-backed Laser Digital into his liquidity network underscores growing demand for regulated access to digital assets, FinanceFeeds reported. Such moves align with broader trends, as firms like dYdX prepare U.S. entries with reduced-fee spot trading services, CryptoNewsZ reported, capitalizing on a regulatory environment that now classifies sufficiently decentralized networks as non-securities, Investing.com noted.

Yet optimism remains guarded. While Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by late 2025, driven by institutional adoption and maturing derivatives markets, Coinotag reported, short-term fundamentals suggest a more volatile path. The Trump-Xi trade truce, though symbolic, has yet to stabilize supply chains or curb inflationary pressures, leaving central banks with limited room to ease policy aggressively, that Bitget report noted. For crypto, the absence of a clear liquidity tailwind—combined with lingering geopolitical risks—means any rally will likely remain contingent on sustained regulatory clarity and macroeconomic stability, the Cointelegraph piece added.