Bitcoin News Today: Manufacturing Stagnation and Dovish Fed Prolong Bitcoin Bull Cycle to 2026

The Parabola Hasn't Even Started Yet: Raoul Pal Warns the Market Is Still in Early Expansion

The crypto and macroeconomic landscapes are converging in ways that suggest the current bull market may extend well into 2026, according to analysts tracking the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The index, which measures U.S. industrial activity, has remained below the 50 threshold—indicating contraction—for seven consecutive months, a pattern historically aligned with Bitcoin's (BTC) cycle peaks. This correlation, first popularized by Real Vision's Raoul Pal and echoed by macro-focused analysts like Colin Talks Crypto, implies a prolonged bull run that could defy typical four-year halving rhythms, according to a CoinEdition analysis.

The ISM PMI's current stagnation reflects broader manufacturing struggles, including high tariffs, uncertain trade policy, and weak global demand. For example, a purchasing manager in the transportation equipment sector described business conditions as "severely depressed," with tariffs inflating costs by up to 20% across supply chains, as the CoinEdition analysis noted. These headwinds have delayed the PMI's recovery above 50, historically a trigger for Bitcoin's upward momentum. Colin Talks Crypto noted that if the pattern holds, the current cycle could stretch "considerably longer than Bitcoin cycles typically run for," with potential peaks delayed until Q3 or Q4 2025, according to a Bitget report.

Bitcoin's price action supports this thesis. At $111,582, BTC has surged 92% year-to-date, with institutional adoption accelerating. Fifteen U.S. states now plan Bitcoin reserves, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for long-term holders stands at 3.11—far below historical peak levels of 12—suggesting ample room for appreciation, as the CoinEdition analysis observed. Meanwhile, the S&P 500's 0.86 correlation with Bitcoin underscores its shift from speculative asset to macroeconomic barometer. The Federal Reserve's accommodative stance, with 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) real yields at 1.77%, further bolsters liquidity conditions favorable to BTC, a point also raised in the CoinEdition coverage.

Trade tensions, however, remain a wildcard. U.S.-China negotiations in Kuala Lumpur recently aimed to avert 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, while South Korea's $350 billion U.S. investment pledge faces delays over cash disbursement terms. These developments highlight the fragile interplay between geopolitical risks and crypto liquidity. For instance, a heavy cash component in South Korea's deal could tighten KRW liquidity, pushing traders toward USD and stablecoin pairs as local currency pressure mounts. Conversely, phased funding agreements could stabilize the won and expand crypto market breadth.

Despite these uncertainties, the extended cycle timeline offers strategic advantages. Investors with an average cost basis of $33,500 currently show an MVRV of 3.11, far below the 7+ levels seen at prior peaks. This suggests Bitcoin has significant upside before reaching overvaluation territory, as the CoinEdition analysis warns. Additionally, manufacturing weakness may prolong the Fed's dovish stance, supporting BTC's rally through late 2025 if the PMI eventually crosses above 50, as historical patterns and the Bitget report suggest.