Bitcoin News Today: Macroeconomics and Institutional Demand Curb Crypto Crash Fears

The crypto market's prospects for a major crash appear dim, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden, who argues that current conditions lack the euphoric fervor typically preceding a severe downturn. In a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden dismissed the likelihood of a "major capitulation", emphasizing that Bitcoin's trajectory is increasingly shaped by macroeconomic factors and institutional demand rather than the traditional four-year halving cycle. Her analysis aligns with broader industry sentiment, as figures like Bitwise's Matt Hougan have similarly downplayed the relevance of the four-year cycle, suggesting the market may remain in a prolonged growth phase.

Alden's stance contrasts with more bearish predictions from Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki, who anticipates a 65% to 70% retracement in Bitcoin's price over the next two years. However, Alden stressed that market outcomes rarely reach the extremes investors fear. "It's usually not as good as people expect and it's usually not as bad as people expect," she noted, a sentiment reflecting cautious optimism amid recent volatility.

Alden's view is supported by Bitcoin's price action. After hitting an all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, the asset retreated to as low as $80,700 in early November before rebounding to $85,710 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data. The 22.46% decline over 30 days has fueled speculation about a potential market bottom, though Alden warned against assuming every downturn guarantees an immediate bull run. "People get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market. No one is owed a bull market," she said https://cryptonews.com/news/no-big-crash-in-sight-for-bitcoin-says-macro-analyst-lyn-alden/.

The debate over Bitcoin's future trajectory underscores shifting dynamics in the crypto space. Alden highlighted that institutional adoption and macroeconomic forces-such as interest rates and inflation-are now key drivers of market behavior https://cryptonews.com/news/no-big-crash-in-sight-for-bitcoin-says-macro-analyst-lyn-alden/. This view is echoed by Coinbase Institutional, which argued in a recent note that futures markets have underestimated the likelihood of a U.S. rate cut, citing factors like tariffs and private-sector data as potential inflation dampeners.

Meanwhile, market liquidity remains a critical concern. Coinpedia reported $801 million in crypto liquidations on Nov. 17, with long traders accounting for $500 million of the total. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 17, nearly the lowest level of the year, reflecting widespread anxiety among traders. Despite these headwinds, some analysts see opportunity in the downturn. Bitwise's Hougan described the current correction as a "generational opportunity" for long-term investors, noting Bitcoin's potential to lead a rebound as macroeconomic clarity emerges.

Looking ahead, Alden projected Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 by 2026, with new highs possible by 2027. Her timeline aligns with broader expectations for a post-quantitative tightening environment, as the Federal Reserve's December 1 cessation of QT and global stimulus measures-such as Japan's $110 billion package-could inject fresh liquidity into risk assets.

The market's resilience, however, hinges on macroeconomic stability. Analysts at XWIN Research Japan cautioned that Bitcoin may remain range-bound between $60,000 and $80,000 through year-end if the Fed maintains high interest rates amid stubborn inflation near 3%.