Bitcoin News Today: Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Regulatory Risks Drive Crypto's October Sell-Off

The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp downturn in late September 2025, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $120,000 and Ethereum (ETH) sliding to $4,100, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and shifting investor sentiment. The decline followed a brief rally after weak U.S. job growth data initially spurred optimism for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: $118K Ahead? - CoinDesk^[4]. However, the market quickly reversed as traders recalibrated expectations, with Ether leading the sell-off, shedding nearly 4% within minutes Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: $118K Ahead? - CoinDesk^[4].

Historical patterns suggest October has traditionally been a strong month for Bitcoin, with a 73% probability of a positive close over the past 15 years. Yet, analysts caution that risks such as a U.S. government shutdown or delayed SEC decisions on XRP ETF applications could trigger further corrections Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Price Prediction For October 2025^[1]. Current technical indicators point to a potential short-term target of $105,000 for Bitcoin, with a bearish 5-day signal suggesting a possible drop to $102,500 Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Price Prediction For October 2025^[1]. Ethereum, meanwhile, faces immediate resistance at $4,260, and a failure to break above this level could push prices toward $3,800 Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Price Prediction For October 2025^[1].

The recent volatility underscores broader macroeconomic pressures. While Bitcoin has historically outperformed in Q4, with an average gain of +27% in October and a median return of +28.3%, analysts warn that prolonged market euphoria and crowded long positions could lead to sharp corrections Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crash to 106K Likely? Here’s What to Expect^[2]. Ash Crypto, a prominent market observer, predicted a "nasty drop" for Bitcoin to $106,000 and Ethereum to $3,800, citing cyclical patterns and the tendency for markets to move contrary to consensus Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crash to 106K Likely? Here’s What to Expect^[2].

Ethereum's underperformance relative to Bitcoin in 2025 has been attributed to ETF outflows, delays in the Pectra upgrade, and geopolitical risks like Trump's 25% automotive tariffs Bitcoin Price (BTC) and Ether Price (ETH) Tumble After …^[3]. These factors have eroded investor confidence, with Ethereum ETFs experiencing consistent outflows and technical setbacks further dampening recovery momentum Bitcoin Price (BTC) and Ether Price (ETH) Tumble After …^[3].

Looking ahead, the market remains polarized between bearish corrections and potential rebounds. While Bitcoin's hourly trendline support at $118,000 offers a short-term floor , historical fourth-quarter data for Ethereum-averaging +24% gains-supports a potential rally to $7,000–$8,000 if key resistance levels are reclaimed Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Price Prediction For October 2025^[1]. XRP, meanwhile, remains a wildcard, with pending SEC decisions on eight ETF applications potentially unlocking billions in institutional inflows Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Price Prediction For October 2025^[1].