Bitcoin News Today: Lightning Network's Real Utility Surges Beyond Public Metrics

Bitcoin's Lightning Network, once a key indicator of adoption, is being reshaped by exchange-driven private channels, casting doubt on the reliability of traditional metrics like public capacity. As major exchanges, wallets, and merchants increasingly route payments through custodial and off-chain pathways, the network's visible liquidity—measured in open channels and collateral—has plateaued, even as real-world utility grows. This shift highlights a growing disconnect between on-chain data and the actual economic activity flowing through Bitcoin's second-layer infrastructure, according to a CryptoSlate analysis.

Public Lightning capacity currently stands at 4,132 BTC (~$453 million), rebounding from an August low of 3,600 BTC but still below 2024 levels. Nodes and channels have also declined, with 16,294 nodes and 41,118 channels as of October 2025. Yet these figures mask a surge in off-chain activity. Exchanges like Coinbase, OKX, Kraken, and Binance now dominate Lightning throughput, using the network to process withdrawals and deposits without advertising their routes. This consolidation reduces the need for public channel collateral, compressing visible capacity while boosting efficiency, as noted in the CryptoSlate piece.

The trend is further amplified by stablecoin integrations. Tether's USDt has begun leveraging Bitcoin's Lightning Network via Taproot Assets, enabling dollar-denominated transactions without expanding public channel capacity. Lightning Labs, a key infrastructure provider, positions this as a way to scale fiat corridors while minimizing liquidity demands. Meanwhile, wallet innovations like splicing and BOLT12 upgrades allow users to resize channels and streamline recurring payments, reducing the need for new channel openings, according to the CryptoSlate analysis.

Merchant adoption also plays a role. Companies such as Japan's Mercari and South Africa's Pick'n Pay have integrated Lightning for BTC payments, with settlements converted to fiat for sellers. Breez and 1A1z estimate over 650 million people now have access to Lightning-enabled payment apps, though active usage remains concentrated among crypto-native users. CoinGate reported that Lightning's share of BTC merchant payments nearly doubled from 2023 to mid-2024, reaching 15%, a trend that has persisted through 2025, per the CryptoSlate piece.

The implications for Bitcoin metrics are profound. Public capacity, once a proxy for network health, now lags behind utility. For example, the average channel capacity has risen to ~$10,763, and fee rates have climbed 3.2% daily, suggesting higher throughput per BTC. Yet these gains are not reflected in broader capacity figures. Analysts warn that relying on outdated metrics risks misreading the network's adoption trajectory. "Throughput is concentrating into fewer, more capable routes," said one industry expert, noting that measured capacity may shrink even as real-world usage expands, as the CryptoSlate analysis highlights.

Looking ahead, scenarios vary. A "consolidation base" case projects public capacity between 3,500 and 4,800 BTC, with exchanges routing 10–20% of BTC withdrawals. A "USDt lift" scenario could push capacity to 4,500–6,500 BTC if stablecoin corridors gain traction. However, regulatory headwinds or fee volatility could drag capacity below 3,000 BTC, stifling merchant adoption outside crypto-native niches, the CryptoSlate piece warns.

In parallel, institutional Bitcoin strategies continue to evolve. Companies like ZOOZ Strategy Ltd. and Metaplanet have expanded their Bitcoin holdings through buybacks and credit facilities, with ZOOZ now holding 1,036 BTC valued at ~$115 million. These moves underscore Bitcoin's growing role as a corporate treasury asset, though they remain distinct from Lightning's payment dynamics, as detailed in a Coinotag article and a QuiverQuant report.