Bitcoin News Today: Lightning Network projected to capture 5% global stablecoin volume by 2028 as retail and institutional adoption drives growth

Voltage CEO Graham Krizek has predicted that Bitcoin’s Lightning Network could capture 5% of global stablecoin transaction volume by 2028, driven by growing retail and institutional adoption of the layer-2 scaling solution. According to Krizek, this forecast aligns with current trends in stablecoin regulation and infrastructure development, though existing stablecoin activity on Lightning remains minimal at present [1].

Krizek emphasized that stablecoins are a key driver for Lightning Network growth, describing it as the “top scalability tool” for handling stablecoin transactions. He noted that while current stablecoin volume exceeds $180 billion daily, only a negligible percentage flows through Lightning. However, the network’s capacity to process high-scale, low-cost transactions could position it to manage billions in stablecoin flows as adoption accelerates [1]. This projection is supported by recent developments, including Tether’s January announcement to bring its USDT stablecoin to Bitcoin with native Lightning Network (LN) support and Lightning Labs’ June release of Taproot Assets (v0.6), which aims to establish the network as a decentralized forex layer for stablecoins [1].

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has also endorsed Lightning’s potential for large-scale stablecoin use, citing its peer-to-peer architecture as a solution to blockchain scalability challenges. Ardoino described USDT on Lightning as an ideal platform for “high-scale transactions” during an April interview [1]. Meanwhile, Krizek highlighted that major stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle (issuer of USDC) are still in the early stages of integrating LN support. He anticipates significant growth in the second half of 2024 as these projects scale their operations [1].

The Lightning Network’s infrastructure is evolving rapidly. As of now, the network comprises 14,000 nodes, 44,800 channels, and a capacity of $448 million in Bitcoin liquidity, according to metrics provider Amboss [1]. Despite a 23% decline in total channel numbers since January 2024, Krizek attributes this to increased capital efficiency, with larger channels being established. He estimates that Lightning’s user base—measured by access via exchanges, wallets, and payment platforms—has surpassed 700 million, doubling since last year [1].

Krizek also pointed to institutional and retail adoption as critical growth drivers. Retail users are pushing businesses to adopt Lightning for faster, cheaper transactions, while institutions are beginning to explore its benefits for risk management and capital efficiency. Cash App, for instance, already processes 25% of its Bitcoin payments via Lightning, underscoring its potential for mainstream use [1]. Krizek stressed that “instant settlement will be standard” for businesses integrating Bitcoin, mirroring traditional payment expectations.

The forecasted 5% share of stablecoin flows by 2028 is a bold but plausible target, given the network’s technical advantages and the regulatory momentum behind stablecoin frameworks like the U.S. GENIUS Act. However, achieving this will require overcoming current barriers, including limited liquidity and the need for broader adoption among major stablecoin issuers. Krizek’s comments reflect confidence in Lightning’s ability to scale, but the timeline for widespread implementation remains uncertain [1].

Source: [1] [Lightning Network could nab 5% of stablecoin flows by 2028: Voltage CEO] [https://cointelegraph.com/news/lightning-network-5-percent-stablecoin-volume-voltage-ceo]