Bitcoin News Today: Kraken IPO Push, M&A Activity Fuel Crypto Market Optimism: 50T Funds Founder

Kraken's potential initial public offering (IPO) and a surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity could reignite growth in the cryptocurrency market's so-called "mid-stage" cycle, according to Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 50T Funds. This optimism comes amid uncertainty over whether the recent four-year bull cycle has reached its peak, with some analysts suggesting a prolonged bearish phase could follow.

Bitcoin touched an all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025, but a sudden $19 billion liquidation event has since sent prices lower. At $87,015, Bitcoin has fallen about 6% in two weeks, according to data from CoinGecko. Tapiero, however, insists the bull market is "still mid-stage" and that increased institutional participation through M&A and IPOs will bring in more capital from traditional financial markets.

Kraken, which announced an $800 million funding round in November to support its IPO ambitions, has a $20 billion valuation and is positioning itself as a key player in attracting new investors.

The exchange filed for a U.S. IPO in the same month, signaling its intent to expand beyond its current base of crypto-native capital. With regulatory clarity improving in the U.S., the IPO could serve as a gateway for traditional investors to enter the crypto space.

The Four-Year Cycle and Its Potential End

Fidelity's global macro director, Jurrien Timmer, has raised concerns that Bitcoin may have completed another four-year halving cycle, both in price and time. Timmer, a long-term Bitcoin bull, warned on X that 2026 could be a "year off" for the cryptocurrency. He cited historical patterns where Bitcoin winters-periods of decline-have lasted approximately one year. The October peak near $125,000, according to Timmer, fits into this historical framework and suggests a correction may be underway.

Timmer's view has created a divide among analysts. While some agree that the four-year cycle is a key benchmark, others argue that macroeconomic factors and institutional adoption are now more influential than the cycle itself. The coming months will test whether this cycle-driven narrative holds or if fundamental shifts in market structure will override it.

Mixed Signals from Traders and Market Intelligence

Despite Fidelity's bearish stance, not all indicators point to a prolonged bear market. Jimmy Xue, co-founder of on-chain analytics firm Axis, noted that while Bitcoin's four-year cycle provided an initial rhythm, the market is now driven more by global liquidity and sovereign adoption. Xue suggested that if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, the support level at $75,000 could become a "higher low" within a longer bull cycle.

Market intelligence platforms like Nansen show mixed signals from so-called "smart money" traders. These high-performing traders are currently betting on short-term declines across most major cryptocurrencies, except for Avalanche (AVAX) and Pump.fun (PUMP). However, they remain net long on Ethereum, indicating some optimism about that market's potential recovery.

The Role of Regulation and Institutional Adoption

Regulatory developments in 2026 could play a crucial role in shaping the market's trajectory. The U.S. has seen significant legislative movement in 2025, particularly with the passage of stablecoin laws. While the implementation of these rules remains to be seen, they are expected to bring more clarity and legitimacy to the crypto space.

Cathy Yoon, general counsel at Temporal, emphasized that 2026 will likely see further progress in crypto regulation, but the focus will shift from new legislation to the practical implementation of existing laws. This includes how stablecoins integrate into the broader financial infrastructure and how regulators examine and disclose risks associated with crypto assets.

What This Means for Investors

Investors are now balancing between cycle-based predictions and the evolving fundamentals of the crypto market. Tapiero and other bulls argue that Kraken's IPO, along with a wave of M&A activity, will bring new capital and stabilize market sentiment. However, the recent volatility and mixed signals from traders suggest caution is warranted.

Timmer's warning of a potential $65,000–$75,000 support range for Bitcoin implies a test of that level in the coming months. If prices hold, it could signal the start of a longer bull cycle. If they break below that range, the bearish scenario could intensify.

For now, the market remains in a state of flux. Investors are closely watching both macroeconomic indicators and regulatory developments as they navigate what could be a pivotal year for crypto markets.