Bitcoin News Today: Ki Young Ju Admits 54% Forecast Error as Institutional Accumulation Replaces Retail Selling in Bitcoin Cycle Shift

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has acknowledged the obsolescence of his Bitcoin cycle theory, which previously linked price movements to retail selling and institutional accumulation patterns. The theory, which predicted market peaks around 18 months before halving events, failed to account for the shift in whale behavior from distributing Bitcoin to retail investors to transferring holdings to institutional entities. This transition has led to a maturing market structure where institutional buyers now dominate, replacing the retail-driven hype cycles that historically defined Bitcoin’s volatility [1]. Ju admitted his 2024 bearish forecast—anticipating a price decline during a traditional bear phase—was incorrect, as institutional accumulation accelerated instead of the expected retail sell-off [2].

The evolution of market dynamics has rendered traditional cycle models ineffective. Historically, Bitcoin’s bull and bear phases were fueled by cyclical retail participation, where institutional players entered markets during the final year before halving events. However, Ju’s analysis highlights a structural change: since early 2023, retail investors have been net sellers, while institutions—including ETFs and large wallets—have steadily accumulated Bitcoin. This shift has created a quieter, data-driven bull market distinct from the euphoric retail frenzies of 2021. On-chain data from CryptoQuant analyst Burakkesmeci underscores this trend, showing a sharp divergence in investor behavior, with “quiet and smart money” now leading the charge [1].

The implications for market forecasting are significant. Previous bear markets were predictable due to observable panic selling among retail investors, a clear indicator of downturns. However, institutional behavior introduces new complexities. If a bear market were to emerge, it might manifest through institutional panic rather than retail exodus, a scenario that lacks historical precedent. Analysts warn this shift complicates risk assessment, requiring new models to gauge market liquidity and sentiment based on institutional activity rather than retail patterns [1].

The maturation of Bitcoin’s market structure is further evident in the reduced influence of speculative retail trading. Institutional demand, driven by hedge funds, pension funds, and corporate treasuries, has acted as a stabilizing force, mitigating traditional bear market corrections. This shift aligns with broader 2025 trends, where Bitcoin’s price has remained resilient amid macroeconomic volatility, supported by inflows from institutional custodial accounts. However, the lack of transparency in institutional holdings and transaction patterns remains a challenge for validating these trends [2].

While Ju’s revised focus on institutional buying suggests a more bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s 2025–2026 trajectory, such predictions remain speculative. The absence of a unified framework for understanding institutional behavior means the new paradigm is still in its formative stages. Market participants must now adapt to a landscape where macroeconomic factors—such as interest rates and regulatory clarity—play a greater role in Bitcoin’s valuation than cyclical retail dynamics. This transition reflects a broader industry consensus that institutional adoption is reshaping Bitcoin’s trajectory, potentially leading to a more stable but less volatile market [1].

Source: [1] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory May Shift as Institutional Accumulation Replaces Retail Selling, Suggests Ki Young Ju] [https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-may-shift-as-institutional-accumulation-replaces-retail-selling-suggests-ki-young-ju/] [2] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory Obsolete as Ki Young Ju Admits 54% Forecast Error] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-cycle-theory-obsolete-ki-young-ju-admits-54-forecast-error-2507/]