Bitcoin News Today: Kenneth Rogoff Admits Bitcoin Miscalculation Amid $124,000 Surge

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economist and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, recently revised his Bitcoin forecast after admitting a miscalculation in his earlier 2018 prediction that the cryptocurrency would be worth only $100 [1]. On August 19, 2025, Rogoff shared his reflections on X, acknowledging that his earlier assessment failed to account for prolonged regulatory inaction and the growing role of Bitcoin in illicit transactions [1]. This admission comes as Bitcoin’s price soared past $124,000, far exceeding expectations from just a few years prior [1].

Rogoff explained that he had been overly optimistic about the U.S. government’s response to cryptocurrency regulation and its ability to curb Bitcoin’s use in underground economies [1]. His 2018 forecast underestimated the lack of regulatory action and the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors and major corporations [1]. The economist also noted that the cryptocurrency’s role as a medium of exchange, particularly in illicit markets, had a significant impact on its valuation [1].

Financial analysts have pointed to similar factors as key drivers of Bitcoin’s recent rise [1]. The lack of regulatory enforcement, combined with growing institutional interest, has led to a surge in capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market [1]. Additionally, Bitcoin’s integration into the global underground economy—estimated to be worth over $20 trillion—has further complicated its trajectory [1].

Rogoff’s revised assessment has sparked renewed debate about the future of cryptocurrencies in a regulatory landscape that remains uncertain [1]. His acknowledgment highlights the challenges of making long-term forecasts in rapidly evolving markets and underscores the importance of adapting economic models to real-time developments [1]. Experts suggest that Bitcoin’s future will likely be shaped by a combination of regulatory responses, technological advancements, and broader macroeconomic trends [1].

The shift in Rogoff’s stance also reflects broader academic and policy discussions on the role of digital assets in the global economy [1]. Alongside his work with economist Carmen Reinhart, Rogoff continues to influence conversations on financial stability and monetary policy [3]. His public admission of error adds nuance to the discourse and reinforces the need for flexibility and continuous evaluation in economic forecasting [1].

Source:

[1] Harvard Economist Rogoff Revises Bitcoin Forecast, Cites Miscalculation (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68abfd0807060634cfe45f43/)

[3] AVA Investment Analytics (https://www.avaresearch.com/)