Bitcoin News Today: Kenneth Rogoff admits 2018 Bitcoin prediction was wrong as price hits $124,495

Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and currently a professor at Harvard University, recently admitted that his 2018 prediction about Bitcoin’s price trajectory was significantly off. At the time, he stated that Bitcoin was more likely to drop to $100 rather than rise to $100,000. However, Bitcoin’s price surpassed $100,000 for the first time in December 2024 and hit a record high of $124,495.51 on August 14, 2025 [1]. Rogoff shared his reflections on X, acknowledging that he had been “far too optimistic” about U.S. regulatory developments in the cryptocurrency space [1].

Rogoff outlined several factors contributing to his miscalculation, including the global failure to implement sensible regulation and the unexpected surge in institutional demand for Bitcoin. He noted that the extent to which Bitcoin was being used for illicit activity had exceeded his expectations, and he criticized U.S. regulators for largely ignoring these concerns [1]. Furthermore, he expressed surprise at the lack of congressional scrutiny regarding what he described as a “glaring conflict of interest” tied to the Trump family’s involvement in cryptocurrency [1].

Rogoff also highlighted that he had not anticipated a scenario where a U.S. president could hold hundreds of millions—or potentially billions—of dollars in cryptocurrencies with seemingly no regulatory consequences. This, he argued, created a clear conflict of interest and underscored the need for more robust oversight [1]. The recent rise in Bitcoin’s price has been attributed by its supporters to factors such as institutional adoption and its role as a hedge against traditional financial systems [1].

The growing acceptance of Bitcoin is evident in recent developments, including Harvard University’s allocation of $117 million into a Bitcoin ETF, signaling increased confidence in the asset class. Rogoff himself has made a substantial investment in Bitcoin, further reflecting the shift in perception among elite investors [1]. Many in the crypto community have long compared Bitcoin to gold, suggesting it could eventually serve as a store of value. This year, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a federal Bitcoin reserve, and an increasing number of companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets [1].

The ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s role in both legal and underground economies remains unresolved. While Rogoff acknowledges the steady demand driven by illicit use, proponents argue that Bitcoin’s potential as a financial asset is still under-realized. The Genius Act, a recent piece of legislation, aims to regulate stablecoins—cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional assets like the U.S. dollar—further signaling the government’s attempt to balance innovation with oversight [1].

Rogoff’s admission reflects a broader re-evaluation of how policymakers and economists understand and respond to the rapid evolution of the cryptocurrency market. His 2018 forecast now appears increasingly outdated in light of the regulatory and market developments that followed [1]. The shift in sentiment, both among investors and institutional players, highlights the growing legitimacy of Bitcoin as a mainstream financial asset.

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[1] This economist said in 2018 that bitcoin was more likely to drop to $100 than hit $100k—here's what he says he got wrong (https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025081994/this-economist-said-in-2018-that-bitcoin-was-more-likely-to-drop-to-100-than-hit-100k-heres-what-he-says-he-got-wrong)