Bitcoin News Today: Kenneth Rogoff Admits 2018 Bitcoin Prediction Went Terribly Wrong

Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and Harvard professor, has publicly admitted that his 2018 prediction—Bitcoin crashing to $100 rather than reaching $100,000—was incorrect [1]. In a post on X, Rogoff acknowledged that much has changed in the past seven years and that his earlier forecast "went terribly wrong" [2]. At the time, he had argued that government regulation and Bitcoin’s speculative nature would lead to its collapse, but the cryptocurrency has instead surged over 1,000% since his comments [1].

Despite his admission, Rogoff has not changed his overall skepticism about Bitcoin. He pointed to three key areas he failed to anticipate: the U.S. government’s handling of cryptocurrency regulation, Bitcoin’s role in the underground economy, and the apparent regulatory tolerance for high-profile figures holding large crypto balances [1]. He also noted his over-optimism regarding the likelihood of “sensible” regulation in the U.S. [2].

Bitcoin’s performance has defied many traditional economic assumptions. The cryptocurrency reached over $100,000 in late 2024 and continues to trade at record highs in 2025. This success has been attributed to factors such as increased institutional investment, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the asset’s appeal as a hedge against inflation in countries with weak local currencies [1].

The shift in Bitcoin’s status was further highlighted by the investment decisions of Harvard’s endowment, which allocated $116 million to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF in 2025. This move stands in contrast to Rogoff’s 2018 warning and underscores a broader shift in institutional attitudes toward digital assets [1].

Crypto analysts have responded to Rogoff’s admission with mixed views. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, noted that Rogoff “failed to imagine that a decentralized project could succeed at scale.” David Lawant, a researcher at FalconX, described Rogoff’s previous book on cash as “so terrible” that it “pushed me to BTC.” Meanwhile, Matthew Sigel of VanEck ranked Rogoff among Bitcoin’s loudest critics, accusing him of “writing Bitcoin’s obituary too early” [1].

The evolving landscape of digital assets has made long-term predictions increasingly difficult. While Bitcoin’s recent trajectory suggests a bull market potentially extending into 2027, short-term volatility remains a factor. The Harvard economist’s admission reflects the broader challenge of forecasting outcomes in a rapidly changing and often unpredictable financial environment [1].

Sources:

[1] This economist said in 2018 that bitcoin was more likely to drop to $100 than hit $100K. Here's what he says he got wrong – https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025081994/this-economist-said-in-2018-that-bitcoin-was-more-likely-to-drop-to-100-than-hit-100k-heres-what-he-says-he-got-wrong

[2] Harvard Economist Admits His Bitcoin Prediction Went ... – https://coindoo.com/harvard-economist-admits-his-bitcoin-prediction-went-terribly-wrong/

[3] Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti) / X – https://x.com/joeconsorti?lang=en

[4] Crypto Bull Market Could Run Until 2027, Bernstein Predicts – https://coindoo.com/crypto-bull-market-could-run-until-2027-bernstein-predicts/