Bitcoin News Today: Kenneth Rogoff Admits 2018 Bitcoin $100 Prediction Wrong Amid $124K Surge

In a rare and notable admission, Kenneth S. Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor and former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, acknowledged that his earlier predictions about Bitcoin were inaccurate. In 2018, Rogoff forecast that Bitcoin’s value would likely fall to $100 within a decade rather than rise above $100,000. However, by late 2025, Bitcoin’s price had surged past $124,000, far exceeding his expectations [1]. The development has prompted Rogoff to reflect on the rapid evolution of the cryptocurrency market and the limitations of traditional economic models in explaining Bitcoin’s trajectory [2].

Rogoff attributed his misjudgment in part to an overly optimistic assumption regarding the pace and rigor of U.S. regulatory action against cryptocurrencies. He had expected that policymakers would impose stricter measures to prevent issues like tax evasion and money laundering. However, the regulatory environment evolved more slowly and with less intensity than anticipated, which weakened the foundation of his earlier forecast [3]. As a result, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies gained more traction than expected, particularly within the informal economy, where they compete with traditional currencies as mediums of exchange [4].

The economist also highlighted the growing influence of cryptocurrencies despite the lack of robust regulatory oversight. He pointed to the underground economy as a key driver of demand for digital assets, a topic he explores in detail in his latest book. This demand has played a significant role in supporting Bitcoin’s value and challenging the long-held skepticism of traditional financial experts [5]. His comments have sparked renewed debate about how academic and financial institutions should adapt to the shifting landscape of digital finance.

Rogoff’s acknowledgment marks a shift in sentiment among once-skeptical economic voices. The broader market has seen increasing interest from institutional investors, with the development of a range of ETF-related products contributing to Bitcoin’s recent strength. While Rogoff did not provide a revised price target, his admission underscores the need for economists to reevaluate their assumptions in light of new technological and institutional developments [6]. His 2018 prediction had been widely cited as evidence that cryptocurrencies lacked long-term viability; the current price performance clearly refutes that view.

Rogoff’s reflections also raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest in the regulatory landscape. He warned that when regulatory bodies hold large amounts of cryptocurrencies, the risk of biased policy decisions increases. This has become a topic of public discussion as regulators grapple with the balance between fostering innovation and ensuring financial stability.

As Bitcoin continues to break previous price barriers, its role in the global financial system remains a subject of debate. While some regulatory authorities are taking a cautious approach, others are showing signs of increased acceptance. The future of cryptocurrencies will likely be shaped by the interplay of technological advancements, market dynamics, and evolving regulatory frameworks [5].

Source:

[1] Harvard economist admits misjudging Bitcoin (https://tradersunion.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/show/445690-harvard-economist-admits-misjudging-bitcoin/)

[2] Bitcoin News Today: Harvard Economist Admits 2018 ... (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-harvard-economist-admits-2018-bitcoin-100-prediction-wrong-2508/)

[3] Bitcoin News Today: Kenneth Rogoff Admits ... (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-kenneth-rogoff-admits-bitcoin-growth-defied-traditional-economic-models-2508/)

[4] Kenneth Rogoff Admits Misjudging Bitcoin Price in 2018 ... (https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/news/kenneth-rogoff-admits-misjudging-bitcoin-price-in-2018-prediction/67770)

[5] Harvard Economist Rogoff Revisits Bitcoin Prediction After ... (https://defi-planet.com/2025/08/harvard-economist-rogoff-revisits-bitcoin-prediction-after-100k-breakthrough/)

[6] Bitcoin price prediction: BTC attempts rebounds from 3 ... (https://tradersunion.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/show/445759-bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-attempts/)