Bitcoin News Today: JPMorgan Sees $126K Bitcoin Upside as Gold Gap Narrows

Bitcoin fell briefly below $110,000 on August 26, 2025, marking its lowest level in seven weeks. The cryptocurrency had been on a steep decline after hitting an all-time high of over $124,000 on August 14. During the past 24 hours, it dropped to $108,890, with the decline attributed in part to a major whale selling 24,000 BTC, equivalent to over $2.7 billion in value. The move sparked a wave of additional selling pressure and volatility, pushing the price lower despite continued strong demand from institutional and retail investors.

JPMorgan analysts have commented on the drop, noting that the current price is "too low" in comparison to gold, particularly given the historically low volatility of Bitcoin. According to their assessment, Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of the year to about 30% now. This reduction in volatility, they argue, has compressed the risk-adjusted gap between Bitcoin and gold. The analysts calculated that for Bitcoin to match the roughly $5 trillion market value of private gold investments, its price would need to rise to around $126,000 by year-end. This suggests a potential upside of nearly $18,000 from the recent low.

On the technical front, key levels for investors to watch include support at $107,000 and $100,000. A breakdown below $107,000 could trigger a further retracement toward $100,000, a level that has historically attracted buying interest. Conversely, resistance is expected near $117,000, where failed retests of the 50-day moving average and recent trading patterns suggest a potential ceiling for the price. A successful breakout above $117,000 could open the door to $123,000, a level that aligns with this month’s closing highs and last month’s peak.

Despite the recent correction, Bitcoin's underlying fundamentals remain robust. The hash rate—a measure of the network’s computational power—has reached near-record levels, currently at 909,080,589 terahashes per second. This indicates strong network security and miner activity, even amid price weakness. Additionally, on-chain data shows continued accumulation by both retail and institutional investors, with small wallets and ETFs buying consistently. ETFs now hold roughly 1.29 million BTC, valued at $146 billion, representing a significant portion of the daily miner issuance.

The market is also influenced by macroeconomic factors. U.S. GDP was revised upward to 3.3% in Q2, and jobless claims dropped to 229,000. These figures could temper expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut, but rising political instability, such as the recent dispute over the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, introduces uncertainty. Bitcoin has historically responded positively to such uncertainty as investors seek alternatives to traditional assets. The upcoming PCE inflation report will be a critical barometer for market sentiment, with cooler-than-expected numbers likely to support a price rebound.

Investors are also monitoring the broader geopolitical and economic landscape, including the performance of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the potential implications for Bitcoin. While the U.S. dollar remains a key factor, demand from Asian and European markets has offset some of the caution from U.S. institutions. ETF inflows remain strong, but a shift in the Coinbase Premium Index—suggesting reduced U.S. buying pressure—could signal a temporary stall in Bitcoin’s momentum.

Bitcoin's price action over the coming weeks will likely hinge on whether it can break above $117,500 with strong volume. A successful breakout could pave the way for a push toward $120,000 to $124,000, supported by ETF inflows and corporate treasury accumulation. A failure to reclaim $117.5K would likely see the price retreat toward $110,000 or $108,000, with the risk of further declines to $105,000 if sentiment shifts further into fear.

Source: [1] JPMorgan says current bitcoin price 'too low,' sees upside to $126,000 by year-end (https://www.theblock.co/post/368653/jpmorgan-says-current-bitcoin-price-too-low-sees-upside-to-126000-by-year-end) [2] Watch These Bitcoin Levels as Price Drops Below ... (https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-bitcoin-levels-as-price-drops-below-usd110000-for-the-first-time-since-early-july-11797438) [3] Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $110,000 After Whale Sold 24,000 BTC (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-crashes-below-110000-after-whale-sold-24000-btc) [4] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Holds $113K as Whale Selling and ETF Demand Collide (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-holds-13k-usd-as-etf-demand-counters-whale-selling)