Bitcoin News Today: JPMorgan: Bitcoin's Structural Shifts and Scarcity Challenge Gold's Store of Value

JPMorgan analysts have revised their assessment of Bitcoin's valuation relative to gold, asserting that the cryptocurrency remains significantly undervalued and could surge to $165,000 by year-end. The bank's latest report, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, calculates that Bitcoin would need a 40% increase from its current price of approximately $119,000 to align with gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. This analysis underscores a growing narrative that Bitcoin is emerging as a superior store of value compared to traditional safe-haven assets. The bank's model suggests that Bitcoin's current price is roughly $50,000 below its fair value, driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving investor behaviorBitcoin Could Reach $165K Based on Gold's Record Run: JPMorgan^[1].

The "debasement trade," wherein investors hedge against fiat currency devaluation by allocating capital to Bitcoin and gold, has gained momentum in 2025. JPMorgan notes that retail investors have been the primary drivers of this trend, with inflows into spot Bitcoin and gold ETFs accelerating since late 2024. While gold ETFs initially outpaced Bitcoin in early 2025, the cryptocurrency has closed the gap, particularly after August. Institutional participation, though present via CME futures, has lagged behind retail demand, with open interest data showing a recent slowdown in net institutional buyingBitcoin Could Reach $165K Based on Gold's Record Run: JPMorgan^[1]. The bank attributes this shift to Bitcoin's increasing appeal as a digital alternative to gold, particularly as its volatility ratio relative to gold has fallen to a record low of 2.0.

Corporate and state-level adoption of Bitcoin is emerging as a key catalyst for its long-term growth. Major firms like Strategy and Metaplanet have expanded their Bitcoin holdings, with Strategy planning to raise $42 billion for further purchases by 2027. Several U.S. states, including New Hampshire and Arizona, have begun allocating portions of their reserves to Bitcoin and gold, signaling growing institutional acceptance. JPMorgan analysts argue that these developments, coupled with a maturing derivatives market-marked by acquisitions like Coinbase's purchase of Deribit-will further entrench Bitcoin's role in traditional investment portfoliosJPMorgan says bitcoin likely to have more upside than gold in H2 …^[3]. The bank also highlights regulatory clarity under the Trump administration as a potential tailwind, with pending legislation such as the CLARITY Act expected to reduce legal ambiguities for crypto assets.

Market dynamics suggest a zero-sum competition between Bitcoin and gold in the second half of 2025. While gold has historically dominated during periods of geopolitical tension, Bitcoin has outperformed in recent months, driven by corporate buying and favorable regulatory shifts. JPMorgan notes that Bitcoin's recent 18% gain since April 22 contrasts with gold's 8% decline over the same period, reflecting a shift in investor preferencesJPMorgan says bitcoin likely to have more upside than gold in H2 …^[3]. The bank's models indicate that Bitcoin's volatility-adjusted appeal will continue to attract capital, particularly as central bank rate cuts and U.S. dollar weakness amplify demand for inflation hedgesBitcoin Gold Comparison from JPMorgan: 'Bitcoin Remains Cheap …^[2].

JPMorgan's $165,000 price target is supported by structural factors, including Bitcoin's tightening supply dynamics and robust on-chain metrics. Post-halving scarcity, combined with a record 74% of circulating supply being illiquid, has created a bullish backdrop. The bank also points to a rising Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and declining sell-side risk, which indicate that long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin without panic selling. While macroeconomic risks and regulatory shifts could introduce volatility, JPMorgan emphasizes that Bitcoin's supply constraints and institutional adoption trends position it for sustained appreciation.