Bitcoin News Today: JPMorgan's $170K Bitcoin Target Sparks Debate: Risk Model vs. Macro Skeptics

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has reignited debate over Bitcoin's valuation, forecasting the cryptocurrency could surge to $170,000 within six to 12 months as it appears significantly undervalued relative to gold on a risk-adjusted basis, according to Bitcoin Magazine. The bank's analysis hinges on a volatility-based comparison between Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that Bitcoin's price must rise to align with the risk profile of the traditional safe-haven asset.

According to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin's recent plunge below $100,000 following a steep October sell-off—driven by leveraged liquidations and a $128 million Balancer hack—has cleared excess leverage in futures markets, the Bitcoin Magazine piece added. The ratio of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures to its market capitalization has since normalized, indicating reduced short-term pressure, TradeBrains reported. Meanwhile, gold's volatility has spiked as its price approached record highs, making Bitcoin relatively more attractive to investors seeking a hedge against macroeconomic risks, a TradingView report noted.

JPMorgan's model calculates that Bitcoin currently consumes 1.8 times more risk capital than gold. To match gold's $6.2 trillion in private-sector investment on a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin's market cap would need to rise 67%, translating to a price of roughly $170,000, CoinDesk reported. This projection contrasts sharply with Bitcoin's current trading level of around $102,000, TradeBrains observed. "Having been $36,000 too high compared with gold at the end of last year, Bitcoin is now around $68,000 too low," Panigirtzoglou noted, per Bitcoin Magazine.

The bank's bullish stance comes amid broader market uncertainty. October's selloff, which erased over $19 billion in perpetual futures contracts, marked Bitcoin's worst October performance since 2018, Bitcoin Magazine reported. Macroeconomic headwinds, including trade tensions and central bank policy ambiguity, have compounded volatility. However, JPMorgan argues that ETF outflows have remained modest compared to earlier inflows, signaling a stabilizing market backdrop, the Bitcoin Magazine piece added.

Not all analysts share JPMorgan's optimism. Galaxy Digital, for instance, recently cut its 2025 Bitcoin price target to $120,000 from $185,000, citing macroeconomic pressures, whale selling, and shifting investor preferences toward AI and gold, The Block reported. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, described Bitcoin as entering a "maturity era" characterized by slower gains driven by institutional absorption and reduced retail participation, Benzinga reported. The firm also highlighted that 470,000 bitcoin—worth $50 billion—were redistributed from long-term holders in October, creating persistent resistance near key price levels, Benzinga added.

The divergence in forecasts underscores the evolving dynamics of the crypto market. While JPMorgan's volatility-adjusted model emphasizes Bitcoin's structural appeal as a digital alternative to gold, skeptics point to immediate challenges such as ETF-driven liquidity constraints and geopolitical shifts in capital allocation, Cointribune reported. Morgan Stanley recently echoed JPMorgan's institutional optimism, initiating an Overweight rating on Galaxy Digital, citing its dual role in AI infrastructure and blockchain adoption, TradeBrains noted.

As the debate unfolds, investors are weighing whether Bitcoin's recent dip presents a buying opportunity or a warning sign of prolonged consolidation. JPMorgan's $170,000 target, grounded in quantitative risk metrics, suggests confidence in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory—even as short-term fundamentals remain contested, TradeBrains observed.