Bitcoin News Today: Investors Wait: Will Altcoin Season Arrive in 2025?

The Altcoin Season Index has recently plunged to a score of 46 out of 100, indicating a subdued altcoin market as Bitcoin (BTC) continues to dominate the crypto landscape. This score, calculated by comparing the performance of the top 100 altcoins against Bitcoin over the past 90 days, suggests that only 41 of those coins have outperformed Bitcoin [1]. Analysts and market participants are closely monitoring the index to determine whether the long-awaited “altcoin season”—typically marked by broad-based outperformance of altcoins—will materialize in 2025.

Bitcoin’s market dominance currently stands at 58.58%, according to data from TradingView [1], suggesting that investors are still favoring the leading cryptocurrency over smaller-cap alternatives. This trend contrasts with previous bull markets, where Bitcoin dominance often fell sharply as capital flowed into altcoins. Analysts from Bitfinex argue that the delayed onset of altcoin season is linked to a “muted trajectory” in the current market, where investor appetite for risk appears to be softer compared to previous cycles [1]. They suggest that a broader re-rating of the altcoin market is unlikely until inflows into Bitcoin products regain strength and new investment vehicles for altcoins are introduced.

Meanwhile, Coinbase Institutional’s global head of research, David Duong, holds a contrasting view. He believes current market conditions are already signaling the early stages of an altcoin season, noting that Bitcoin dominance has declined from 65% in May to 59% in August [4]. Duong anticipates that the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts in September and October could act as a catalyst for a full-scale altcoin season. He cites improving market liquidity, as measured by Coinbase’s z-score, which factors in metrics such as net stablecoin issuance, trading volumes, and order book depth. These conditions, he argues, may encourage a shift in capital from Bitcoin to altcoins as interest rate cuts unlock liquidity from money market funds.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, has emerged as the most notable performer in the current environment. Over the past 30 days, ETH has outperformed Bitcoin by a wide margin, delivering a 16% return compared to Bitcoin’s negative 6% [1]. This outperformance has fueled speculation about whether Ethereum can lead the charge into a broader altcoin season. However, analysts caution that a single strong performer is not sufficient to define an altcoin season, which typically requires a broad-based outperformance across 75% of the top altcoins [4].

The market is also showing signs of shifting interest toward lower-cap meme coins, a trend that could gain momentum if the broader altcoin market turns bullish. Tokens like MaxiDoge and Token6900 have attracted attention for their degen meme narratives, despite the fact that most altcoins remain constrained by limited retail participation [5]. These tokens, which operate under a high-risk, high-reward model, could benefit from speculative trading activity if the altcoin season index continues to rise. However, their volatile nature and lack of intrinsic value make them unsuitable for risk-averse investors.

As the market awaits the arrival of a full-scale altcoin season, investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach. While historical data shows that altcoin seasons can deliver significant returns, the current environment is marked by uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments. The recent delay in SEC approvals for several crypto ETF applications, including products for Solana and XRP, adds another layer of complexity to the market’s trajectory [1]. Until the Altcoin Season Index surpasses 75 and large-cap altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it remains premature to declare the onset of a full-fledged altcoin season.

Source:

[1] Altcoin season won't start until more crypto ETFs launch: Bitfinex (https://cointelegraph.com/news/altcoin-season-crypto-etfs-factor-may-delay-analysts)

[2] Altcoin season index chart (https://www.bitget.com/price/altcoin-season-index)

[3] Altcoin Season Index 2025: AI Trading Guide (https://www.tokenmetrics.com/blog/understanding-the-altcoin-season-index-your-complete-guide-to-altcoin-market-dominance)

[4] Coinbase Predicts 'Full Scale Altcoin Season' Heading Into ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-predicts-full-scale-altcoin-123107867.html)

[5] Is Altcoin Season Delayed? Crypto Buzz Moves to These ... (https://icobench.com/news/is-altcoin-season-delayed-crypto-buzz-moves-to-these-meme-coins/)