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The U.S. Federal Reserve is increasingly anticipated to implement a series of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025, with recent data pointing to a potential three 25-basis-point reductions by December. These expectations were reinforced by the latest labor market reports, which revealed only 22,000 new jobs in August—a stark contrast to expectations of 75,000 and the weakest showing in nearly four years. The labor market’s weakening trend has prompted bond traders and analysts to raise their forecasts for rate cuts. Futures markets now price in a 65% probability of a 75-basis-point reduction by December, up from 46% before the August jobs data was released. Additionally, the odds of a 50-basis-point cut in September have risen to approximately 11.7%, signaling growing demand for more aggressive monetary easing.
The shift in expectations is being driven by deteriorating employment figures, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. Analysts from institutions such as Brandywine Global and ClearBridge Investments argue that the Fed can no longer ignore the labor market’s slowdown. This has led to renewed calls for rate cuts, with some experts suggesting a 50-basis-point reduction at the September meeting might be necessary to stabilize economic growth. However, others remain cautious, noting that inflation, which has been elevated due to President Donald Trump’s recent tariff policies, could limit the Fed’s flexibility. Despite these concerns, the market is clearly leaning toward a more accommodative stance, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.084% as investors priced in aggressive rate cuts.
In the cryptocurrency market, analysts and sentiment indicators suggest early signs of an emerging altcoin season, a period marked by a shift in investor capital from
to alternative cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s dominance in the total crypto market has fallen below 60%, and the Altcoin Season Index has crossed the 50-level threshold, hovering near 56. This index, which measures the relative performance of the top 100 altcoins against Bitcoin over the past 90 days, has been trending upward since mid-September, indicating a growing appetite for riskier assets. Some traders, like Rekt Fencer, have described this as the “final shakeout” for altcoins, suggesting that a broader rally could follow. Additionally, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dipped into a “Fear” reading, indicating that investors are exercising caution, potentially ahead of a larger market move.The anticipated FED rate cuts are viewed as a key catalyst for a potential altcoin season. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding riskier assets, encouraging investors to redirect capital into high-growth markets like cryptocurrencies. This dynamic was observed during previous altcoin seasons, such as in 2020-2021, when Bitcoin’s dominance fell from 70% to 38% as altcoins gained momentum. The approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for altcoins like
(SOL), , and (LTC) is also expected to attract institutional capital, further fueling the altcoin market. Additionally, rising trading volumes for altcoins and a surge in interest in meme coins and utility tokens suggest that the market is primed for a more pronounced shift in capital allocation.Looking ahead, the cryptocurrency market is showing early signs of volatility, with SPX6900 and Worldcoin among the top performers. SPX6900 surged nearly 15% in a single day, breaking through key technical levels and signaling potential further gains if the trend continues. Worldcoin also extended its four-day rally, surpassing the $1.000 psychological level. These developments reflect a growing confidence in altcoins, particularly as Bitcoin’s price remains relatively stagnant. However, the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, with investors closely watching the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions and the potential impact on liquidity and risk appetite.
The interplay between FED policy and crypto market dynamics is becoming increasingly evident. As the Fed moves toward a more dovish stance, the conditions for an altcoin season are strengthening. Historical patterns show that such market cycles often begin after a period of consolidation and increased interest in smaller-cap assets. With Bitcoin’s dominance falling and altcoin indices trending upward, the market appears to be preparing for a potential shift in momentum. Traders and investors are now monitoring key technical levels and on-chain indicators to determine whether the next altcoin season is on the horizon.
Source:
[1] Markets Bet on More Fed Interest Rate Cuts After Another Weak Jobs Report (https://www.
.com/economy/markets-bet-more-fed-interest-rate-cuts-after-another-weak-jobs-report)[2] Is the Fed Ready to Go Big? Analysts Debate Jumbo Rate Cut (https://fortune.com/2025/09/05/fed-rate-cuts-50-basis-points-odds-jobs-report-recession/)
[3] Altcoin Season (https://tangem.com/en/blog/post/what-is-altseason/)
[4] ChatGPT Predicts: Will There Be an Altcoin Season in 2025? (https://icobench.com/news/chatgpt-predicts-will-there-be-an-altcoin-season-in-2025/)
[5] Top Crypto Gainers: SPX6900, Worldcoin Extend Rally (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1103079-20250908)

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