Bitcoin News Today: Investors Hold Breath as Powell’s Words Could Shape Bitcoin’s Fate

Bitcoin markets have shown signs of volatility ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, with traders preparing for potential shifts in monetary policy. Bitcoin has fallen approximately 9% from its all-time high of $124,514, reaching around $113,100, reflecting a cautious stance among investors. Spot and Ether exchange-traded funds in the U.S. have recorded four consecutive sessions of outflows, totaling $1.9 billion, indicating investor uncertainty about the immediate economic outlook [2].

Options trading data from Deribit suggests a bearish positioning, with the put-to-call ratio for August 22 contracts rising to 1.33. This ratio signals that traders are increasingly hedging against a potential hawkish tone from Powell, who is expected to address the Fed’s stance on inflation and interest rates [1]. Analysts have noted that the current positioning indicates a market more sensitive to the risk of Powell not signaling an aggressive rate cut than to a dovish message [2].

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, as measured by the CME FedWatch tool, has decreased from 92% a week ago to 73% as of late July [1]. This decline reflects a shift in market expectations as new inflation data, particularly the 0.9% increase in the producer price index in July, has tempered optimism about an imminent policy pivot [1]. The Fed’s most recent policy meeting minutes highlighted continued concerns about inflation risks outweighing employment risks, reinforcing the possibility of a cautious approach to rate cuts [2].

Bitcoin’s performance has been further influenced by broader macroeconomic uncertainties and the strength of the U.S. dollar ahead of Powell’s speech. The recent U.S.-EU trade deal, which reduces Trump-era tariffs on EU goods to 15%, had little immediate impact on crypto markets, as Bitcoin continued its downward trajectory. The broader cryptocurrency market has also seen a decline, with the total market capitalization down 1% to $3.9 trillion [1]. Despite the trade agreement, crypto assets remain under pressure due to profit-taking and uncertainty around the September rate decision [5].

Some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. The Ned Davis Research team, for instance, believes the current "secular bull" for Bitcoin is not yet over, noting that a major "blow-off top" is usually a precursor to a significant correction, which has not yet occurred [1]. However, they are monitoring the increased trading activity in non-bitcoin assets on platforms like Coinbase, as well as the lack of a 50% drawdown in Bitcoin’s price for over 661 days—a potential warning sign for volatility [1]. Analysts at Mosaic Asset have emphasized that Powell’s Jackson Hole speech could temper rate-cut expectations if inflationary risks continue to dominate the Fed’s outlook [4].

As the market awaits Powell’s speech, key price levels for Bitcoin will be closely watched. The $114,000 level has acted as short-term resistance, with further downside dependent on a convincing break below this level. Analyst Rekt Capital has highlighted the importance of Bitcoin maintaining a strong position above $114,000 to avoid a continuation of its downward trend [4]. Meanwhile, the structure between $109,850 and $111,900 is seen as a critical area that could determine whether the market is viewed as weak or stable [4].

The market is also influenced by the broader macroeconomic environment, including Trump’s executive order allowing crypto into 401(k) plans and the potential for further adoption of stablecoins. Despite these tailwinds, the near-term focus remains on the outcome of Powell’s speech and the subsequent Fed actions, which could shape the trajectory of both traditional and digital asset markets in the coming months [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Dips Ahead of Fed Chair's Remarks at Jackson Hole (https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/08/21/bitcoin-ethereum-fed-jerome-powell-jackson-hole-wyoming/)

[2] Bitcoin Traders Jittery Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-traders-jittery-ahead-powell-084743210.html)

[3] Bitcoin Price Rises Ahead of Fed Jackson Hole Speech (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-crypto-federal-reserve-jackson-hole-085201361.html)

[4] Bitcoin Ignores US-EU Trade Deal With $114K In Focus (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dip-hinges-on-114k-as-markets-shrug-off-us-eu-trade-deal)

[5] Bitcoin Falls Even as U.S., EU Reveal Deal on Trump Tariffs (https://coingape.com/bitcoin-falls-even-as-u-s-eu-reveal-deal-on-trump-tariffs/)