Bitcoin News Today: Investors Hedge Bets as Powell’s Speech Looms Over Crypto’s Crossroads

Bitcoin traders are preparing for moderate price volatility of approximately ±2.0% around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, according to options pricing data and market observers. Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at crypto derivatives market maker Orbit Markets, noted that options activity suggests a 2.5% potential 24-hour swing, with increased demand for downside protection. The one-day implied volatility index (BVIV1D) for Bitcoin has climbed to an annualized 49%, reflecting heightened uncertainty ahead of the central bank’s address [1].

Traders are particularly wary of a potential “balanced” tone from Powell, which would deviate from widespread expectations of dovish signals. In such a scenario, the market could see a retracement, prompting increased buying of put options to hedge against potential losses. Goyal highlighted that overnight 25-delta risk reversals currently show a 6 volatility point skew toward puts, indicating a stronger demand for downside insurance [1].

The broader market environment also supports a more cautious stance. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has declined to 38%, a level closer to blue-chip stocks like Starbucks Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., from a peak near 200% over a decade ago. This maturity has shifted speculative trading activity toward Ethereum, which remains more volatile and attractive for traders seeking sharper price swings [2].

Options positioning reflects this defensive outlook. The put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin options on the Aug. 22 expiry has risen to 1.33 on Deribit, with $3.8 billion in open interest. The largest portion of this activity is concentrated in $110,000 puts, signaling traders’ concern about an imminent pullback. This trend is supported by data from Farside Investors, which reported $523 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows on Tuesday, marking a more than fourfold increase from the previous day [4].

Market observers are also watching closely for signs of structural shifts in investor behavior. Ethereum ETFs have seen significant inflows in recent weeks, with some analysts suggesting they could surpass Bitcoin ETFs in total supply held if the current pace continues. BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF alone has seen $5.5 billion in open options positions, representing nearly 40% of the Deribit Ethereum options market. This shift underscores a growing appetite for Ethereum over Bitcoin as a vehicle for speculative gains [2].

Despite the defensive positioning, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Ned Davis Research analysts Philippe Mouls and Pat Tschosik noted that the current “secular bull” for Bitcoin has not yet concluded, pointing to the absence of a major “blow off top” before a significant correction. However, they remain cautious, noting that Bitcoin has not experienced a 50% drawdown in 661 days, nearing the record set in 2021. They also highlighted the increasing share of non-Bitcoin trading on Coinbase, suggesting a diversification of trader activity [3].

As the market braces for Powell’s speech, sentiment remains mixed. While some traders are positioning for a reversal or short-term pullback, others are focused on the long-term fundamentals of both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The outcome of the Jackson Hole address could have a decisive impact on the direction of the broader cryptocurrency market, particularly as geopolitical and economic uncertainties continue to influence investor behavior [5].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin's Jackson Hole Test: How Hard Could Powell's Address Hit BTC Prices (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/22/bitcoin-s-jackson-hole-test-how-hard-could-powell-s-address-hit-btc-prices)

[2] Bitcoin Volatility Collapse Forces Risk-Loving Traders to Seek New Playground (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-volatility-collapse-forces-risk-112008080.html)

[3] Bitcoin Traders Position for Jackson Hole. What Powell's Speech Could Mean for Crypto (https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-traders-position-for-jackson-hole-what-powell-big-speech-could-mean-for-crypto-11795212)

[4] Bitcoin Traders Jittery Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-traders-jittery-ahead-powell-084743210.html)

[5] Ethereum ETFs Lose $197 Million—Even Worse Than Bitcoin (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethereum-etfs-lose-152531921.html)