Bitcoin News Today: Investors Brace for Battle as Bitcoin Tests Key On-Chain Weakness

Bitcoin’s recent price movements have sparked speculation about a potential September price dump, but several on-chain metrics suggest that a sharp decline may not be imminent. Analysts are closely monitoring realized price and loss indicators to gauge the behavior of short-term investors and assess the likelihood of further corrections.

One key on-chain metric is the Bitcoin Realized Loss, which calculates the total loss in USD when coins are moved on-chain at a lower price than previously. During bearish market phases, this metric tends to rise as investors sell their positions at a loss. The increase in realized loss is often interpreted as a sign of market capitulation or panic selling, where holders liquidate their holdings to mitigate further losses [1]. However, this metric is also used by analysts to identify potential support levels where buying pressure might resume, offering insight into market sentiment.

The Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price is another important indicator that reflects the average price at which investors who have held Bitcoin for 155 days or less acquired their coins. When the Bitcoin price closes below this level, it can signal increased selling pressure from these price-sensitive investors. On August 29, Bitcoin closed below the STH Realized Price of approximately $108,928, marking the second such instance in 2025 [2]. The first occurrence took place in February, when the price fell nearly 20% in a two-month correction from around $92,000 to $76,000. Analysts like Burak Kesmeci have noted that these closures below the STH Realized Price often indicate a continuation of the downward trend, potentially leading to a 20% drop in price again.

Despite these on-chain signals, Bitcoin’s price has shown some resilience in the past 24 hours, rising slightly to around $108,675 as of the latest data. However, it has struggled to break above the psychological $110,000 level and is still down more than 5% in the last week [2]. This mixed performance highlights the uncertainty surrounding the near-term price trajectory.

The Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) indicator is another tool that helps track shifts in market sentiment. The NRPL compares the average selling price of coins to their average acquisition price based on the last on-chain movement. When the selling price exceeds the purchase price, the indicator shows a net realized profit (green), while a lower selling price reflects net losses (red) [3]. These shifts can help identify potential turning points in the market, as a shift from red to green often coincides with a reversal in investor behavior.

While on-chain data provides valuable insights, it does not guarantee specific price movements. Historical patterns suggest that when Bitcoin closes below the STH Realized Price, the risk of a deeper correction increases. However, the recent stabilization in price, along with the mixed signals from the NRPL, suggests that market dynamics may not yet be aligned for a significant September sell-off. Investors are advised to monitor these metrics closely as they evolve.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Realized Loss Chart (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/realized-loss)

[2] Bitcoin Price Closes Below STH Realized Price For The ... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1083050-20250901)

[3] Bitcoin Net Realized Profit Loss (NRPL) Chart (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/net-realized-profit-loss)