Bitcoin News Today: Institutions Seize Bitcoin Dips as Sellers Exhausted

Bitcoin's recent price plunge has triggered one of the most intense capitulation events since the 2022 FTX collapse, with short-term holders realizing over $900 million in daily losses—a record high for the cryptocurrency's history according to analysis. The selloff, which saw BTC drop nearly 35% from its October $126,000 peak to a low of $80,000 in November, has left market participants debating whether the worst is over or if further pain lies ahead.

The turmoil has been amplified by macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting sentiment around U.S. interest rates. The Federal Reserve's potential December rate cut, now priced at 69% by derivatives markets, has introduced volatility as traders balance optimism over looser monetary policy against fears of a broader tech and AI-driven asset bubble according to forecasts. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which once saw record inflows, have turned into a net outflow of $3.79 billion in November, with BlackRock's IBIT alone losing $523 million in a single day according to market data.

Despite the bearish backdrop, signs of stabilization are emerging. On-chain data reveals that short-term holders (STHs)—often seen as the most reactive market participants—have exhausted much of their selling pressure. The STH Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has plunged to levels typically preceding major reversals, while the "Risk-Off Signal" metric has sharply declined, indicating waning selling momentum. Swissblock analysts argue that BTC is "on the verge of forming a bottom," noting that a second wave of capitulation often marks a shift in market control from sellers to buyers.

Institutional activity also suggests cautious optimism. NASDAQ-listed KindlyMD, which holds 5,398 BTC as of November 12, has maintained a disciplined approach to its crypto treasury despite the selloff. Meanwhile, Harvard University has increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings to $443 million, and Japan's Metaplanet is preparing a ¥15 billion war chest for BTC purchases, signaling long-term strategic interest according to market analysis.

Technical indicators further support a potential rebound. Bitcoin's price has stabilized above key support levels, including the $85,204 threshold, with analysts like Astronomer assigning a 91% probability that BTC will avoid closing below current lows. Historical patterns of capitulation—marked by three consecutive high-volume down days—have preceded 8 of 11 major reversals in Bitcoin's history, with only one instance resulting in sustained downside.

However, risks remain. The broader market's "Total Supply in Loss" metric now sits at 35%, hovering between a "healthy dip" and a "deep bear market" threshold. Long-term holders (LTHs) continue to extract $1.5 billion in daily profits, and macroeconomic shocks—such as a deeper-than-expected recession or regulatory shifts—could derail recovery efforts.

Analysts are split on Bitcoin's 2025 trajectory. Ultra-bullish forecasts from Standard Chartered and Bitwise target $200,000, hinging on Fed cuts and institutional adoption. More moderate predictions, including a $100,000–$135,000 range from 101Blockchains, assume a consolidation phase according to market analysis. On the bearish end, veteran chartist Peter Brandt warns of a potential drop to $58,000 before a rally resumes according to forecasts.

For now, the market appears at a crossroads. As Axel Adler notes, the Fed's December decision could be the catalyst that flips macro momentum. Until then, Bitcoin's path remains a tug-of-war between exhausted sellers and institutions viewing dips as buying opportunities.

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