AInvest Newsletter
Daily stocks & crypto headlines, free to your inbox


Bitcoin price has reclaimed key support levels near $122,000–$124,000 after a recent correction from its all-time high of $126,219, with analysts and on-chain data pointing to renewed institutional demand and tightening supply as catalysts for a potential rally toward $150,000 by year-end. The cryptocurrency's recent surge to $126,000 has reignited optimism, driven by sustained ETF inflows, declining exchange reserves, and strong derivatives activity. Institutional adoption, including corporate treasury allocations and ETF accumulation, has pushed Bitcoin's market capitalization to record levels, with over $3.55 billion in weekly net inflows into Bitcoin-linked products as of September 2025 [2].
On-chain metrics further reinforce the bullish narrative. Exchange balances have fallen to a five-year low of 2.38 million
, indicating reduced sell-side liquidity and heightened long-term holding sentiment. This tightening supply dynamic, combined with a 8% annualized futures premium, suggests market participants remain confident in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory despite short-term volatility [2]. Derivatives data also shows robust open interest at $72 billion, reflecting sustained trading activity and positioning for upside [2].
Technical analysis highlights critical support and resistance levels. Bitcoin's consolidation above $113,000 has drawn attention, with traders and analysts emphasizing the importance of maintaining this threshold to validate a breakout toward the $120,000 liquidity zone. Weekly RSI recovery and flipped resistance levels have bolstered the case for a sustained rally, though caution persists due to historical divergence patterns [5]. A sustained close above $113,500 could trigger a move toward $120,000, with further targets at $130,000 and beyond if institutional flows persist [4].
Expert forecasts diverge but generally align with the $150,000 target. Standard Chartered projects $200,000 by end-2025 and $300,000 by 2026, citing ETF adoption and macroeconomic tailwinds . JPMorgan and Citigroup also model six-figure prices, with JPMorgan's risk-adjusted gold benchmark implying a fair value of $165,000 . Conversely, bearish scenarios warn of potential corrections to $60,000–$80,000 if macroeconomic shocks or regulatory headwinds materialize .
Key drivers of the current bull case include surging institutional demand, with over 30% of Bitcoin's supply now held by exchanges, ETFs, and public companies. UTXO Management estimates an additional $120 billion in institutional flows before year-end, which could absorb 4 million BTC [3]. Spot
ETFs, now a $195.2 billion asset class, have transformed market dynamics, with BlackRock's IBIT alone amassing $57 billion in AUM [3]. These developments, paired with growing policy clarity in the EU and U.S., are creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin's adoption [3].However, challenges remain. Regulatory risks, such as the EU's MiCA capital-reserve requirements and U.S. proposals to reclassify tokens as securities, could disrupt momentum. Market corrections, triggered by macroeconomic surprises or whale sell-offs, also pose threats. A single whale unloading 10,000 BTC could significantly impact price action, given concentrated liquidity in ETF channels [3].
Despite these risks, the fundamental outlook for Bitcoin remains strong. Supply growth has slowed post-halving, while demand from pensions, sovereign funds, and retail apps continues to rise. If ETF inflows maintain their current pace and policymakers avoid draconian crackdowns, $150,000 in 2025 appears challenging but achievable [3].
Quickly understand the history and background of various well-known coins
Daily stocks & crypto headlines, free to your inbox
Comments
No comments yet