Bitcoin News Today: Institutions Defy Bitcoin's Downturn with $116M Buys

Bitcoin's recent price decline has sparked renewed debate over market timing, with analysts pointing to investor anxiety surrounding the cryptocurrency's four-year cycle peak as a primary driver. The selloff, which saw Bitcoin dip below $100,000 for the first time since June, has been exacerbated by waning institutional and retail demand. On-chain metrics and fund flows underscore a deepening bearish sentiment, with Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) experiencing significant outflows despite corporate and academic investments according to data.

The four-year cycle theory, often cited in crypto markets, posits that Bitcoin's price trajectory aligns with its block reward halving events, historically occurring roughly every four years. However, current conditions suggest investors are premature in their concerns. The recent sell-off reflects broader market fatigue rather than a structural breakdown, with 72% of Bitcoin supply still in profit at $100,000 levels. Still, the exodus of institutional capital from Bitcoin ETFs has amplified downward pressure. SoSoValue data reveals $870 million in ETF outflows on October 14, the highest since early October, led by Grayscale's GBTC and BlackRock's IBIT.

Retail demand has also softened, with derivatives markets showing muted activity. For instance, XRP's futures open interest (OI) remains stagnant, averaging $3.78 billion, while Ethereum ETFs have seen nearly $260 million in outflows over the past week. Meanwhile, long-term holders have offloaded 815,000 BTC in the last 30 days—the highest since early 2024—further signaling profit-taking.

Despite the gloom, some institutional players are doubling down. Harvard University tripled its stake in BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF in Q3 2025, increasing its holdings to 1.9 million shares valued at $116.6 million. This move, rare for endowments typically averse to ETFs, highlights growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier. Similarly, MicroStrategy's recent purchase of 487 BTC at $102,557 has bolstered its treasury to 642,000 coins, valued at $65.7 billion. Such corporate accumulation provides a counterbalance to whale-driven selling, helping stabilize prices above $100,000.

The interplay between ETF inflows and outflows remains a critical barometer. While BlackRock's IBIT has seen $28.1 billion in year-to-date inflows, other providers have faced outflows totaling $1.27 billion. Recent data shows a rebound, with +11.46 BTC in net inflows on November 10, but sustained momentum remains elusive. Analysts warn that without renewed institutional demand Bitcoin's path to higher valuations could stall, mirroring mid-2025 consolidation patterns.

Looking ahead, the 365-day moving average ($102,000) will be a key psychological support level. A breakdown could trigger deeper corrections, while renewed ETF inflows and corporate buying may reignite the bull run according to forecasts. For now, the market appears in a holding pattern, with investors weighing the cyclical narrative against evolving macroeconomic signals.